NCR's pandemic trend decreased after two-week MECQ, says expert

The transmission of COVID-19 in Metro Manila has decreased due to the implementation of the modified enhanced community quarantine, University of the Philippines mathematics professor Guido David said Friday.

"We are happy to say that the pandemic trend has actually decreased the past two weeks. So, the reproduction number that we calculate in our reports has actually decreased. It's currently around 1.1, it was about 1.5 at the end of July before we implemented MECQ," David said in an online forum.

According to the professor, reproduction rate refers to the "average number of transmissions of an infected individual."

"The two weeks of MECQ helped move the reproduction number down to about 1.1... In a way, we did achieve what we wanted to do, we wanted to slow down the pandemic and it did," he added.

David explained that this holds true despite the increasing total number of cases which he said can be attributed to some "backlogs."

"We look at several indicators to see the trend—not just the number of cases but also the number of test results and we actually see a decreasing trend in the reproduction number," he said. "So we believe that this decrease is genuine and not just artificial."

David said the UP research team recommended to extend the MECQ in Metro Manila and nearby areas until the end of August in a bid to further decrease the reproduction number below one.

He underscored that Cebu City was able to successfully decrease its reproduction number from 2 to below one after having strict quarantine protocols for a month.

"That's actually the kind of story that we want to see. Their cases decreased from 300 per day to right now it's 90 per day and that's a huge decrease... We hope that the same thing will happen to Metro Manila," David said.

However, Metro Manila and nearby provinces moved back to GCQ on August 19.

David hopes an "improved GCQ" would help reduce COVID-19 transmission in the capital region.

"That means more testing, contact tracing, isolation should be properly done, and the localized lockdowns should be properly implemented," he said.

Hospital occupancy

Nevertheless, David said the lower reproduction number does not directly mean that hospitals in Metro Manila have already seen a drastic drop on COVID-19 patients.

"As far as hospitals are concerned, they are still overwhelmed. That is the unfortunate part because we still have a high number of cases, we're still getting 3,000 cases per day in Metro Manila," he said.

"That's a very big number. In effect, I call it the snowball effect. Because the snowball is already very big, it's very hard to slow it down right now. That's what we're doing, we're essentially trying to slow it down and we did slow it down," he added.

MECQ was implemented over Metro Manila and surrounding areas from August 4 to 18 after medical frontliners called for a "timeout."

In a file sent to reporters on Friday, the Department of Health said a "decreasing trend" in hospital occupancy was observed for Metro Manila and Central Luzon, and "a plateau" was observed in Calabarzon.

Pressed for comment if it can be attributed to the MECQ, the DOH said "it would be too early to tell if the decrease in hospital bed occupancy is a function of the lockdown."

"We are still studying the effects of the MECQ, but several factors can cause the decrease such as the increased bed capacity, timely discharge of recoveries following Department Memorandum No. 2020-0258 and the transfer to step down facility or Temporary Treatment and Monitoring Facilities," it added. —LDF, GMA News