COVID-19 positivity rate in NCR down to 5%, reaches WHO 'ideal' -UP experts

Experts from the University of the Philippines who have been studying COVID-19 transmission in the country said the positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) has gone down to 5%, reaching the "ideal" rate recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

A COVID-19 monitoring report by the OCTA research team on Wednesday showed the positivity rate in the region has decreased from 8% in the last week of September to 5% in the first week of November.

"It must be noted that the World Health Organization recommendation is that the positivity rate remains below 5% for at least two weeks before governments consider reopening," the researchers said.

They also reported that the reproduction number of the virus that causes COVID-19 has increased for the last three weeks, with 0.88 as the latest, but has remained below 1. They have previously said a value higher than one indicates the pandemic is spreading.

At the same time, however, the researchers observed a recent "upward trend" in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases nationwide and in the NCR, though said it was unclear whether this was because of the gradual reopening of the economy or the resumption of testing by the Philippine Red Cross.

While saying this is "not a cause for alarm," they stressed this shows that current positive trends can be reversed if the government, the private sector, and the public become complacent.

The researchers projected the number of COVID-19 cases in the country will reach 425,000 to 440,000 by November 30.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the national COVID-19 case count was 399,749, according to the Department of Health. Most of these cases, or over 360,000, have been tagged as recoveries. More than 7,600 patients have died.

In their report, the researchers said Metro Manila remains the epicenter of the pandemic in the Philippines, followed in the number of new cases by Calabarzon, Central Luzon, Davao, and Western Visayas.

In the NCR, Pateros and Las Piñas are the only local government units (LGU) with a more than 70% hospital bed occupancy, they said.

The researchers continued to urge the national and the local governments to "strictly monitor and enforce the compliance with minimum health standards," such as physical distancing, the wearing of face masks and face shields, and proper hygiene.

In high-risk LGUs, they recommended the implementation of "more aggressive and effective" localized lockdowns to suppress further transmission.

In addition, they urged local officials to "seriously consider" improving their current evacuation strategies to prevent the further spread of the virus as typhoons enter the country.

They also urged the private sector to complement government initiatives to provide safe workplaces and adequate testing for their employees.

The OCTA Research Team is composed of professors Guido David, Ranjit Singh Rye, Rev. Fr. Nicanor Austriaco, and Ma. Patricia Agbulos, with contributions from Erwin Alampay, Eero Rosini Brillantes, Benjamin Co, Bernard Egwolf, Franco Felizarta, Troy Gepte, Bryan Albert Lim, Rodrigo Angelo Ong, Michael Tee, and Benjamin Vallejo, Jr. -MDM, GMA News