OCTA: Conventions, trainings may become COVID-19 ‘superspreaders’

The OCTA Research group urged the national government to rethink its latest directives allowing conferences and seminars to resume in areas under general community quarantine (GCQ), saying these gatherings could become "superspreaders" of COVID-19.

"We urge the national government to rethink its directives that may increase the chances of dangerous superspreader events  as these can trigger another wave. We should be especially  cautious  of these directives as we approach the Christmas holiday season," the independent team of experts said in its latest research-monitoring report of the health pandemic.

"In this regard, we urge the national government to rethink directives such as allowing conferences and seminars to resume in GCQ areas as these events could facilitate social mixing and viral transmission," the team added.

The experts also asked the government to issue clearer guidelines to the public on activities for the holiday season to help ensure that the virus is not spread among the people.

"We understand the logic of economic promotion in  these directives but given the reality of significant outbreaks still in many GCQ areas, we believe that these directives are risky and are opposed to good/sensible pandemic management," they said.

‘High-risk’

Four local government units were flagged as “high-risk” areas for the coronavirus disease 2019 by the experts on Tuesday due to their rising number of infections and hospital occupancy rates.

In their regular monitoring report, experts from the OCTA Research group marked Makati City, Davao City, Mankayan, and Baguio City in Benguet as high-risk areas.

The cities were tagged as high-risk over their high number of new cases per day, positivity rate, attack rate, and hospital occupancy rate from December 1 to 7.

“We are concerned that these LGUs may experience high hospital burden in the coming weeks that may stress their health care systems and overwhelm their medical frontliners,” the report read.

The experts also said the following were “provinces of concern” after they recorded a high number of new COVID-19 cases from December 1 to 7:

• Davao Del Sur
• Benguet
• Isabela
• Cagayan
• Ilocos Norte
• Pangasinan
• Leyte
• Bataan

Meanwhile, Quezon City, Pateros, Muntinlupa, Tugegarao (Cagayan), San Pablo (Laguna), La Trinidad (Benguet), and Balanga (Bataan) were classified as “moderate-risk” LGUs.

“The following LGUs are classified as moderate-risk areas but they are still areas of concern because they all experienced an increase in the number of new cases for the period from December 1 to 7,” experts said.

Despite the increase in infections in certain areas, researchers said the national reproduction number decreased to 0.91 during November 30 to December 6.

In Metro Manila, the reproduction number also decreased to 0.92, but experts said “it is within the margin of error and there is still a statistically probability that the reproduction number could be greater than 1 once late reports come in.”

The Philippines has tallied 442,785 cases with 408,790 recoveries and 8,670 deaths as of Tuesday afternoon.

Factors behind increase

The OCTA Research team attributed the rise in infections observed in many areas to the reopening of the economy, saying the increases “are largely cases of community transmission exacerbated by the significant rise in mobility within and among provinces.”

The experts also cited “pandemic fatigue” and authorities’ failure to enforce minimum health standards as factors behind the increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases.

“In some places, the situation is further exacerbated by the continuing post-typhoon effects (including delays in test reports due to the temporary closing of test centers) in such areas as Isabela and Cagayan province,” they added.

Holiday surge ‘not inevitable’

The researchers also said a holiday-related surge in infections is not an inevitable scenario.

“We believe that there is still much that can be done by the government, the private sector, and by civil society in the next fortnight to prevent an uncontrolled post-holiday surge in COVID-19 cases in the New Year. This is achievable,” they said.

Experts urged authorities and the public not to relax or flout restrictions over the holiday season to prevent a surge in cases.

“We also continue to appeal to our citizens to avoid not just crowded and enclosed areas but also to refrain from joining or organizing social gatherings this Christmas season,” they said.—Julia Mari Ornedo/LDF, GMA News