Duque: Increased mobility likely behind rise in COVID-19 cases

Health Secretary Francisco Duque III pointed to increased mobility due to easing restrictions as a likely factor in the recent surge in COVID-19 cases, saying that it is still not known whether the presence of variants may also be behind the virus spike.

During President Rodrigo Duterte's weekly briefing on Monday night, Duque said that the more transmissible UK variant of the virus that causes COVID-19 has been detected in areas in Metro Manila and the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) that saw an increase in cases.

However, he added, "We don't know if this is a factor that influenced the increase in the number of cases in the NCR and CAR, or is this a coincidental finding."

Duque pointed to other possible factors that may have caused the surge in cases.

"Number one, increased mobility. Dahil nagluwag tayo ng ating mga quarantine restrictions. Pangalawa, binuksan natin ang malaking bahagi ng ating ekonomiya, at dahil po rito, ang mobility tumaas, ang transmission rate tumaas, ang contact rate tumaas, kaya ito po ang mga kadahilanan kung bakit sumipa po ang mga kaso sa NCR, CAR and also in the other regions," he said.

[Number one, increased mobility. Because we loosened quarantine restrictions. Second, we opened a large part of the economy, and because of this mobility increased, the transmission rate increased, and the contact rate increased, and that is the reason why the cases spiked in the NCR, CAR, and also in the other regions.]

Last month, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) had proposed placing the entire country under the less-strict MGCQ quarantine level, but Duterte said he was not likely to do this before vaccines were rolled out. 

The recent rise in cases has led to a two-week curfew in the National Capital Region, with only some workers and services allowed to operate during curfew hours.

Duque said that the recent genome sequencing of 4,160 samples found that the B.1.1.63 or Hong Kong lineage variant remains the most common in the country, being detected in 1,002 samples or 24 percent of the total. 

The UK or B.1.1.7 variant was seen in 4 percent of the cases, while the South Africa or B1.351 variant was seen in 2 percent of the samples. 

Three other variants—including the new P.3, which may be unique to the Philippines—were found among the samples, each accounting for 2 percent. The Brazil or P.1 variant, meanwhile, was found in one sample, a "minuscule .02 percent," Duque said.

Duque said that 39 cases of the UK variant and 64 cases of the South Africa variant were found in 1,023 samples from Metro Manila.

In CAR, meanwhile, 41 cases of the UK variant were detected among 456 samples.

The Philippines currently has 626,893 confirmed cases of COVID-19, after 5,404 new cases were reported on Monday. — BM, GMA News