Current surge in COVID-19 cases similar to July 2020 levels —DOH

The Department of Health said Wednesday the rise in COVID-19 cases in the country at present is similar to what it saw in July last year.

DOH Epidemiology Bureau director Alethea de Guzman made the assessment citing government data indicating that new cases in March were 2.5 times higher compared to January.

“I think a week ago I was flagging that the number of cases getting ill in the past weeks were almost at the peak of last year. Yesterday, it’s now at the same peak,” De Guzman said in an online briefing.

She also said the National Capital Region (NCR) had reached last year’s peak of COVID-19 infections.

A “steep rise” in the number of cases has also been observed in Bohol, while “gradual slowdown” has been seen in Cebu province, and the cities of Cebu, Mandaue, and Lapu-Lapu, De Guzman said.

“I will try to be optimistic that this will no longer go beyond this level,” De Guzman said, adding that the impact  of intensified measures to curb the spread of coronavirus will be known in two to three weeks.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the Philippines reported 631,320 infections with 560,736 recoveries and 12,848 deaths.

Experts from the OCTA Research group said the country could see 11,000 new COVID-19 cases daily by the end of March.

Health authorities have attributed the rise in COVID-19 cases to new variants, increased mobility, and poor adherence to health protocols such as wearing masks and face shields and physical distancing.

‘28 times more cases’

De Guzman said that while several coronavirus variants of concern have been detected in the Philippines, only 7% of samples that underwent genome sequencing tested positive for the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil variants. 

However, the Philippine Genome Center can only sequence 750 samples each week due to logistical constraints.

The DOH warned that “cases will increase by 28 times instead of just 3 times after a month” if the three variants of concern become dominant in the country.

“Ayaw nating umabot sa punto na lahat ng samples na na-se-sequence natin ay magiging variants of concern… That will truly overwhelm our health system,” De Guzman said.

(We don’t want to reach a point where all the samples we’re sequencing test positive for variants of concern. That will truly overwhelm our health system.)

The health official also pointed out that even cities without new coronavirus variants have been seeing a growth in cases.

“Other factors such as mobility and non-adherence to minimum public health standards are driving the surge,” she said.

De Guzman stressed that the transmission can only be contained by intensive contact tracing, isolation, and COVID-19 testing efforts.

The government earlier admitted that contact tracing is the weakest link in its pandemic response. — LBG/RSJ, GMA News