OCTA Research: GCQ bubble unlikely to bring down COVID-19 reproduction number to 1

The stricter restrictions imposed over Metro Manila and its neighboring areas in the “bubble” are unlikely to bring down the reproduction number of the coronavirus to 1 within two weeks, an OCTA Research fellow said Tuesday. 

Professor Guido David said it took 28 days to drive down the reproduction number when the country experienced a surge in COVID-19 cases last year.

“Right now, the reproduction number in NCR is about 2.1 and if we want to reduce the number of cases, that means we have to reduce the reproduction number from 2.1 all the way down to 1. This cannot happen in two weeks, unfortunately,” he told CNN Philippines.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect.

“If we could get the reproduction number to about 1.5, that’s actually very optimistic. It’s unlikely to get it below that within two weeks. I’m not saying it’s impossible but it seems unlikely,” David said.

The government has temporarily banned non-essential travel to and from Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, and Laguna in a bid to contain a fresh surge in infections. 

Police later clarified that residents of the said areas will not be restricted from traveling within the “bubble.” 

David said it would take one to two weeks to see the effect of the new restrictions on COVID-19 transmission.

“Last year, when we had the MECQ (modified enhanced community quarantine), within the first week we already started to see the reproduction number decreasing so that’s what we’re hoping to see,” he said.

“But if it’s not decreasing, maybe we can give it another week at the latest, but I think if there’s no decrease within the first week, that means we have to recalibrate our strategies.”

‘Home care’

David also reiterated the projection of OCTA Research that hospitals in Metro Manila would reach full capacity by the first week of April amid the surge in cases. 

In a separate interview on CNN Philippines, former Health Secretary Manuel Dayrit warned that hospitals might not be able to cope with the number of severe and critical COVID-19 cases if the spike continues unabated.

“It would not be able to absorb all the severe and critical cases because we just don’t have that many critical care beds and there are non-COVID cases as well that need critical care,” he said.

Department of Health data showed that 24 hospitals in Metro Manila no longer had available intensive care unit (ICU) beds for COVID-19 patients as of March 20. 

Nationwide, 52.58% of ICU beds, 39.03% of isolation beds, 38.02% of ward beds, and 31.30% of mechanical ventilators for COVID-19 patients were occupied or in use.

“I think what’s gonna happen is that not everyone that has severe or serious illness would be able to find a hospital to get admitted. I think some people are already experiencing that,” Dayrit said.

“I think one way of addressing this is that you then might need to look at home care and create a situation where you have home care for patients that have COVID and mobilize your workforce for home care,” he added.

The Philippines logged a record-high 8,019 new COVID-19 cases on Monday afternoon, bringing total infections to 671,792 with 577,850 recoveries and 12,972 deaths. — RSJ, GMA News