NCR COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.16 —OCTA Research

The OCTA Research group on Friday said five Metro Manila cities showed a downward trend in new COVID-19 cases as the reproduction number in the capital region decreased to 1.16.

In their latest monitoring report, the independent team of experts said Pasay, Manila, Marikina, Taguig, and Mandaluyong have been recording negative one-week case growth rates for at least two weeks.

Metro Manila posted a -0.4% one-week growth rate with an average of 5,085 new cases per day over the past week, while its positivity rate dipped to 24% from 25%.

The reproduction number in the capital region also fell to 1.16 during the week of April 9 to 15 from 1.19 but this still means each COVID-19 case can infect more than one other person.

“While the trend has slowed in the NCR, the region will continue to have a high number of new COVID-19 cases for the next weeks, which means demand for hospital care in the NCR will not ease very soon,” OCTA said.

The group said hospital bed occupancy in Metro Manila stood at 65% while intensive care unit (ICU) utilization was at 85%.

“People must continue to strictly comply with prevailing health guidelines in order to help prevent the spread of the virus in the region,” they urged.

The Department of Health has also cautioned the public against interpreting the lower number of new cases as an indication of slower COVID-19 transmission, noting that the “artificial decrease” is caused by some laboratories that do not operate daily.

Meanwhile, OCTA said the largest one-week case growth rate in “NCR Plus” — which consists of Metro Manila, Cavite, Rizal, Bulacan, and Laguna — was in Kawit where 83 new COVID-19 infections were reported daily over the past week, “an increase of 417% compared to the previous week.”

“The one-week growth rate of new cases in Calabarzon and Bulacan was 14%, while the one-week growth rate in Western Visayas was highest at 97%. Cagayan Valley had a one-week growth rate of -14%,” the group added.

The Philippines has 904,285 COVID-19 cases with 705,164 recoveries and 15,594 deaths as of Thursday afternoon. 

NCR Plus will remain under modified enhanced community quarantine until the end of the month in a bid to curb transmission. --KBK, GMA News