OCTA: NCR improves, now a moderate risk area for COVID-19

The National Capital Region (NCR) has improved and moved from being a high risk area to a moderate risk area for COVID-19, the OCTA Research Group said Tuesday.

Professor Guido David of the OCTA Research Group said this is because Metro Manila's seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases per day has been down to around 1,100, with positivity rate at 10%.

"The reproduction rate is also at 0.57, so the NCR is now a moderate risk from high risk. The top 10 cities in terms of number of cases include five from NCR and five are even outside the NCR Plus bubble," Guido said in an interview with CNN Philippines, referring to NCR and nearby provinces of Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal and Cavite.

Those LGUs in the top 10 located outside NCR Plus, Guido said, include Davao City, Puerto Princesa City, Bacolod City, Iloilo City and Cagayan de Oro City.

"The indication is good and we expect easing of restrictions, but we don't recommend easing of all restrictions all at once," he added.

NCR is under general community quarantine with heightened restrictions until end of May, a protocol which allows essential trips and partially allows non-essential services and businesses to operate, including scaled down tourism activities.

"Easing restrictions all at once can seriously reverse the trend and threaten our pandemic management," David added.

Despite Metro Manila being a moderate risk area at this point, Guido said vaccinating 50% of NCR, the cities of Tuguegarao, Santiago, Baguio as well as Cainta, Cebu and Imus as earlier recommended by OCTA should be followed since these areas are vulnerable to possible surge.

"These LGUs are always under threat of a surge. The 50% is a realistic target because while we need as much as 75 [percent] to achieve herd immunity, almost 30% of our population are children whom vaccine is not yet available," he said.

"With 50%, we will achieve a level of containment," he added. —KG, GMA News