Philippines may scrap mask policy by Christmas if NCR Plus 8 achieves containment, herd immunity - expert

There could be a maskless Christmas this year if herd immunity will be achieved in NCR Plus 8 areas, OCTA Research Fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco said Thursday.

In his presentation at a Palace briefing, the priest-scientist said if there will be enough vaccine supplies by September and October, the NCR Plus 8 areas (Metro Manila, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Metro Cebu and Metro Davao) may achieve containment by October and herd immunity by November.

To accomplish the containment of COVID-19, Autriaco said 33 million vaccine doses should be given to 40 to 50% of NCR Plus 8 population are needed.

And, in order to attain herd immunity, the expert said 52 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines are needed to inoculate 70% of the NCR Plus 8 population.

NCR Plus 8 must also vaccinate 250,000 people daily, said Austriaco.

"When we build herd immunity in NCR Plus 8 we will protect the rest of the country because surges begin in NCR," he pointed out.

"This is a realistic and an attainable goal for all of us so we have to imagine ourselves as a country. Can we have a no mask Christmas? What will it look like? It will look like what it was before," he also explained.

He further said social distancing and face masks policy could be scrapped if they are able to reach containment, which lowers the average daily attack rate of the virus.

"Once you attain containment, you don't even have to attain herd immunity, the average daily attack rate has to fall between 1 and 100,000, that is 100 cases per day in NCR. When that happens we can begin to lift social distancing and masking arrangements," he said.

Presidential spokesman Harry Roque, for his part, said they are confident that the no mask policy during Christmas will be attained.

"Kaya po iyan (That is attainable)," Roque told reporters during the briefing. "Kaya we are aiming for population protection or containment na sinasabi ni Fr. Austriaco. May mga bansang ginagamit na containment na hindi nagmamask outdoors gaya ng Israel.

(That is why we are aiming for population protection or containment that Fr. Austriaco is saying. There are other countries that are not using masks outdoors after attaining containment just like Israel.)" -- BAP, GMA News