OCTA recommends GCQ for NCR Plus until end-July

The OCTA Research group on Thursday said the general community quarantine classification of NCR Plus -- or Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal -- should be extended until the end of July.

In their latest report, the independent team of experts backed the extension of the GCQ status based on a risk assessment of NCR Plus and its “low vaccination coverage and the state of COVID-19 in the regions surrounding the NCR.”

They said, “The NCR Plus would benefit from extending the GCQ status until the end of July… The extension will also prevent an NCR Plus resurgence.” 

The prevailing lockdown classifications across the country will expire on Thursday,  July 15. 

OCTA classified Metro Manila as a moderate-risk area for COVID-19. The region logged a reproduction number of 0.91, average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 4.71 cases per 100,000 population, ICU utilization rate of 57%, and positivity rate of 11%.

Also, the team of experts flagged an increase in infections in Cebu City and Lapu-Lapu City, where the reproduction has hit 1.37 and 1.80, respectively, indicating a sustained COVID-19 transmission.

On the other hand, ICU utilization rates in both cities have remained low.

Mariveles, Bataan was the only area classified as “very high risk” by OCTA due to its reproduction number of 2.23, ADAR of 37.09 cases per 100,000 population, and positivity rate of 15%. The ICU occupancy rate was not provided.

“[Mariveles] had one day with more than 200 new cases, but subsequent days reported very low numbers, which suggests that the spike in cases was due to a clustering from lags in data reporting,” the group said.

OCTA also said the cities of Davao, Iloilo, Baguio, and Santa Rosa remained as high-risk areas for COVID-19, with “very high” ICU utilization rates observed in Davao, Iloilo, and Santa Rosa. 

Davao City still registered the highest average number of daily new cases at 232 infections during July 8 to 14.

Delta variant threat

Meanwhile, the group underscored that “the threat of the Delta variant is not a question of ‘if’ but a question of ‘when.’”

“The possibility of the highly contagious Delta variant overwhelming our current healthcare system is a reality we must prepare for,” they said.

OCTA reiterated its recommendations to expand testing, tracing, isolation, and bio-surveillance efforts, ensure the safety of workplaces, and impose strict border controls to block the entry of the more transmissible Delta variant.

Moreover, the group urged the government anew to accelerate vaccinations in Metro Manila, eight other COVID-19 hotspots, and 10 other priority areas.

“Recent studies suggest that a minimum of 30% vaccine coverage in a given area can slow the spread of the Delta variant. The challenge is to make sure that when the Delta variant enters the country through the NCR Plus 8, our vaccine coverage is high enough that it will have difficulty spreading across the population,” they said. —LBG, GMA News