OCTA says COVID-19 forecasts based on data not theories

The OCTA Research Team assured the public that its projections are driven by data and not merely theories as the group urged the government for tougher pandemic management.

In an online forum, Dr. Guido David said OCTA Research based its recommendation to implement "circuit-breaker" lockdown on the surge last late March 2021, wherein 4,519 new cases daily were registered.

Instead of a two-week lockdown, David said it took seven weeks to enforce the hard lockdown to reduce cases at 1,255 per day.

"We need to control the pandemic, we need to limit number of deaths.... This is based on data. This is not based on theory. This was based on what happened in the past in the Philippines," David told the media and members of the  Federation Of Filipino Chinese Chambers Of Commerce & Industry, Inc.

"This is why we are confident in the recommendation," he added.

OCTA Research lauded the government for imposing ECQ as early as August 6, which would hopefully take only two weeks to mitigate the spread of the highly contagious lockdown.

In fact, David said the metropolis could record more than 2,500 cases per day until the end of August if the lockdown will  start on August 16.

"What we are hoping to happen is two weeks of lockdown so by September, we will overcome this and then we can have a strong fourth quarter, and a strong final strong months for economy and businesses," David said.

"We can hope to recover what we have lost possibly during the first eight months of the year," he added.

Professor Ranjit Rye, another OCTA Research fellow, underscored the importance of using the projections to address the threat of COVID-19 surge.

"The point is not that we are correct. The point is we now understand that we have information, we need to work together to deal with the threat of the surge and then again, it is not  OCTA being correct, it is about science," Rye said.

Population protection possibly end of the year

With 20% of Metro Manila residents already fully vaccinated, David said they are seeing that 40% or close to 50% residents will be fully inoculated by September or October depending on the vaccination rollout schedule.

"By fourth quarter, definitely, we are seeing possibilities that we will be having population protection in the NCR possibly before the end of the year," he said.

Metro Manila will once again be placed under the strictest form of quarantine for the third time starting August 6 to August 20 in a bid to stop a worsening surge possibly driven by the Delta variant.—LDF, GMA News