OCTA: Virus reproduction rate up to 1.46 as Philippines averages 11K new COVID-19 cases daily

The country’s coronavirus reproduction number, which refers to the number of people that each COVID-19 case can infect, has gone up to 1.46 this past week, the OCTA Research group said on Sunday.

This was for August 8 to 14, the group said, when the country had an average of 11,000 new COVID-19 cases per day.

It added that the growth rate in new cases was 29% for the same period.

The country's average daily attack rate (ADAR), the number of new daily cases per 100,000 population, was at 10.23, considered "high."

Likewise, the country's ICU utilization rate of 70% as of August 13 is also in the "high" category.

The OCTA Research group said the number of new cases “will continue to increase to next week.”

"Medyo concerning ang patuloy na pagtaas ng reproduction number. Ibig sabihin baka hindi ganoon ka-effective ang ating mga intervention o mas malakas ang Delta variant," OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in an interview on Super Radyo dzBB.

(The continued rise in reproduction number is a bit concerning. It means current interventions may not be that effective, or the Delta variant is getting more dominant).

NCR

David said the National Capital Region's reproduction rate was at 1.90.

Reproduction number in the NCR at 1.90. Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR now at 64% while ICUs reached 71% for the first time since May 5, 2021. @DrTonyLeachon @TobyTiangco @officialqcmayor @Joseph_Morong @joeyconofficial @sandraguinaldo @dzbb @maricarcincoINQ @PTVNewsOfficial

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 15, 2021

"Almost 1 is to 2 na ang hawaan ng COVID-19 sa NCR. Kailangan natin itong mapabagal para mapababa ang kaso ng COVID-19 sa Metro Manila," Guido said in an interview on Super Radyo dzBB.

(The ratio is almost 1 is to 2 in terms of the transmission of COVID-19 in NCR. We have to slow down the transmission to lower the number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila.)

A total of 3,066 new cases were tallied in the NCR this past week, a 47% increase over the 2,080 cases the week prior.

Guido however said the number of cases in NCR may even reach 4,000 next week.

Dr. David: Medyo bumagal ng kaunti pero tumataas pa rin. Posibleng humigit sa 4,000 ang kaso sa Metro Manila. https://t.co/Jl7zdrja0g

— DZBB Super Radyo (@dzbb) August 15, 2021

The NCR's ICU utilization also reached 71%, considered "high", for the first time since May 5, 2021, Guido said.

The region's ADAR was at 21.95, likewise "high" with positivity rate of almost 20%, Guido told Super Radyo dzBB.

Although NCR is under enhanced community quarantine until August 20, the number of cases of COVID-19 is not expected to go down immediately, he said.

"Kapag nagpatupad ng ECQ, hindi naman agad-agad bumababa ang kaso. Halos isang buwan bago bumaba ang mga kaso. Siguro mga 3 to 4 weeks," Guido said.

(When ECQ is imposed, the number of COVID-19 cases does not go down immediately. It would take almost a month, maybe three to four weeks, before the number of cases goes down.)

Cebu, other provinces

Next to NCR, Cebu had the most number of new COVID-19 cases this past week with 935, a 24% increase over the 752 cases tallied the previous week.

Cebu's ICU utilization was at 78%, also "high", and its ADAR was "high" at 18.11.

Third in the list of provinces with most new cases this past week is Cavite with 878, a 43% increase over the 615 the previous week.

Cavite has a "critical" ICU utilization rate of 91%, and a "high" ADAR of 20.39.

Ilocos Norte and Aklan registered "critical" ADAR for the period. It was 35.34 for Ilocos Norte, and 32.90 for Aklan. However, the growth rates for these provinces have slowed, at -24% for Ilocos Norte and 5% for Aklan.

Aside from Cavite, the other provinces with "critical" ICU occupancy rate are:

• Tarlac: 100%
• Cagayan: 91%
• Pampanga: 88%
• Misamis Oriental: 87%

Tarlac, meanwhile, registered a 139% growth rate, the highest among the provinces, for the period. Its new cases numbered 105 for August 8 to 14, a dramatic increase from the 44 cases the week prior.

Healthcare utilization

The OCTA Research group said seven provinces had healthcare utilization above 70% as of August 13.

These are:

• Cebu (including Cebu City, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue) - high at 72%
• Cavite - high at 73%
• Laguna - high at 77%
• Pampanga - high at 80%
• Batangas - high at 73%
• Misamis Oriental - above critical at 88%
• Cagayan - above critical at 85%

On Saturday, the Philippines’ tally of COVID-19 cases rose to 1,727,231 with 14,249 new infections, marking the fourth consecutive day when more than 12,000 new cases were recorded.

This is the second-highest number of daily cases recorded since the start of the pandemic, with the all-time high of 15,310 recorded on April 2.

Active cases numbered 98,847; total recoveries at 1,598,314; and the death toll at 30,070. —KG, GMA News