DOH: 6-week MECQ, improved response seen to lower active cases in NCR by end-September

Department of Health (DOH) projections showed that a six-week modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) coupled with an enhanced COVID-19 response could lead to a lower number of active cases in Metro Manila by the end of September.

The latest projections by the DOH and modeling tool FASSSTER showed the possible number of active cases in Metro Manila based on the following scenarios:

• 2-week ECQ followed by 4-week MECQ combined with the current levels of vaccination, case isolation, and compliance to health protocols = 66,403 cases by August 31 and 269,694 cases by September 30
• 6-week ECQ combined with the current COVID-19 response = 71,255 cases by August 31 and 330,079 cases by September 30
• 6-week ECQ combined with an improved COVID-19 response = 83,921 cases by August 31 and 152,776 cases by September 30
• 4-week MECQ followed by 2-week GCQ combined with an improved COVID-19 response = 83,921 cases by August 31 and 158,489 cases by September 30 

But the DOH stressed that projections are not set in stone.

“The latest projections suggest that the best-case scenario or the least number of active cases in the NCR is seen when there is an improvement in the vaccination, shortening the interval between symptom onset and isolation to at most six days, and compliance to the minimum public health standards (MPHS),” it said.

“We can further lower down the projected active cases in NCR if there is improved adherence to MPHS, better case detection to isolation time, and increased vaccination coverage,” it added.

Metro Manila was under ECQ, the strictest lockdown classification, from August 6 to 20. It was downgraded to MECQ along with the province of Laguna on August 21.

Under ECQ protocol, only essential trips and essential industries such as food and medicine are allowed to operate. 

Under MECQ, indoor and al fresco dine-in services are still prohibited.

Personal care services including beauty salons, beauty parlors, barbershops and nail spas are likewise not allowed. Religious gatherings must also be limited to virtual activities. — RSJ, GMA News