NCR's COVID-19 reproduction number down to 1.53 but still 'critical' —OCTA

The reproduction number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) has decreased to 1.53 but is still in "critical range," according to OCTA Research's latest monitoring report.

The report, released Wednesday, covered the period of  August 18 to 24, or the tail-end of the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in the NCR.

The NCR was under ECQ -- the strictest quarantine protocol -- from August 6 to 20 before it was downgraded to modified ECQ for the rest of the month.

In the same report, OCTA said several local government units (LGUs) in the region had decreasing reproduction numbers as well as growth rates.

NCR Report 08.25.21. Reproduction number in NCR decreased to 1.53. Nine LGUs with single digit or less growth rates. @allangatus @DrTonyLeachon @dzbb @cnnphilippines @onenewsph @dzrhnews @QCGov @rapplerdotcom @inquirerdotnet @NET25TV @TV5manila @FEBC_ph @dwiz882 @BomboRadyoNews pic.twitter.com/09YIGLXHCW

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 24, 2021

“The reproduction in the NCR decreased to 1.53 (with an error range of  ±0.05 ). Several LGUs in the NCR had decreasing reproduction numbers and growth rates,” OCTA said.

This is lower compared to Metro Manila's reproduction number of 1.78 on August 18.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of secondary infections by each infected individual.

Navotas has a 1.4 reproduction number, while Pasay, Malabon, Manila, Quezon City, Makati, and Las Piñas have reproduction numbers below 1.5 and growth rates below 20%.

Five LGUs had reproduction numbers higher than 1.7, according to the OCTA: Pateros, San Juan, Taguig, Mandaluyong, and Caloocan.

The NCR averaged 4,019 new COVID 19 cases per day from August 18 to 24, which is 13% higher than the previous week's daily average, the OCTA said.

It added that the growth rates in previous weeks were 54 %, 46% and 67%.

In the past week, the OCTA said the positivity rate in the NCR was at 23%.         

Only four LGUs were still in below critical incidence or average daily attack rate (ADAR): Manila, Quezon City, Caloocan and Marikina.

The ICU occupancy in the region for COVID-19 cases was at high level, while the hospital beds utilization was at moderate.

At least five LGUs -- San Juan, Muntinlupa, Parañaque, Las Piñas and Marikina -- had ICU occupancy at critical level, while six LGUs -- Makati, Taguig, Pasay, Pasig, Valenzuela, and Quezon City -- were at high level.

Seven LGUs -- Makati, San Juan, Navotas, Paranaque, Pasig, Valenzuela and Quezon City -- have hospital bed utilization at high level, while Pateros’ hospital bed occupancy was at critical level. --KBK, GMA News