The OCTA Research group on Saturday said the surge in COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) “may have already peaked” after it noted the reproduction number of the coronavirus went down to 1.22.
However, efforts to sustain the downward trend need to be implemented, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said.
“Early indications are that the surge may have already peaked in the NCR, but efforts must be sustained to ensure the trend continues downward,” he said on Twitter.
“Due to backlog, expect that there will be days when cases could still spike," David added.
Analyzing the trend in the number of new cases of COVID-19 in NCR this year, the group showed that aside from the decrease in reproduction number, the positivity rate in the region also went down to 24%.
Reproduction number refers to the number of people that each case can infect, while the positivity rate is the rate at which people test positive for the virus out of all who have been tested.
Metro Manila’s virus reproduction number dropped to 1.34 earlier this week. It was 1.39 more than a week ago.
NCR week to week comparison of indicators (Sept 11 to 17 on the right vs Sept 4 to 10 on the left). @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @smninews @News5PH @onenewsph @PHINewsNet1 @dwiz882 @CarolynBonquin @PatrickTulfo @EagleNews pic.twitter.com/2y43kPEps2— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 18, 2021
The Department of Health (DOH) meanwhile on Saturday opposed the observation of the OCTA Research group, saying the COVID-19 cases in the NCR have not reached the peak yet.
“At this point in our analysis, hindi pa po natin nakikita pa na nagpi-peak na po tayo sa ating mga kaso. So pinag-aaralan pa po nating maigi yan,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said during the Laging Handa briefing.
(At this point in our analysis, we have not yet observed that the cases have already peaked. We are still studying it.)
PHL reproduction number
Meanwhile, the reproduction number of the entire country stayed at 1.20, OCTA Research said on Friday, noting the 4% one-week growth rate in new COVID-19 cases.
"With today's number, the reproduction number in the country holds at 1.20, with a one week growth rate of 4%. The 7-day average for deaths is 204. Prayers and condolences to all who lost loved ones :( Tomorrow, we hope to see a much lower number than last week's 26k," David wrote on Twitter on Friday.
With today's number, the reproduction number in the country holds at 1.20, with a one week growth rate of 4%. The 7-day average for deaths is 204. Prayers and condolences to all who lost loved ones :( Tomorrow, we hope to see a much lower number than last week's 26k.— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 17, 2021
OCTA Research also posted a list of regions and provinces with the highest number of new COVID-19 cases on Friday, based on data from the Department of Health (DOH).
Topping the list is NCR with 5,156 new cases. OCTA said they previously expected NCR to have 5,200 new cases.
Provinces with the highest new cases reported on 9.17.21 per DOH. Our forecast of 5200 for the NCR was just off by 1% (actual is 5156). @dzbb @allangatus @dzbbsamnielsen @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @onenewsph @dwiz882 @smninews @EagleNews @ANCALERTS @Mai_Rodrigz pic.twitter.com/BkBeQEyhyi— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 17, 2021
Next to NCR are:
- Cavite: 1,765
- Laguna: 1,046
- Batangas: 790
- Rizal: 773
- Bulacan: 761
- Davao del Sur: 639
- Pangasinan: 611
- Cagayan: 582
- Iloilo: 543
The group also shared a table showing the list of local government units with most number of new COVID-19 cases reported on Friday, based on data from the DOH.
Quezon City had the most number of cases with 901, followed by Pasig City with 537, Manila with 480, Davao City with 466, and Makati with 405.
The Philippines on Friday reported 20,336 new COVID-19 cases, marking the second consecutive day where more than 20,000 daily infections were recorded. —KG, GMA News