NCR COVID-19 reproduction number down to 0.87 —OCTA

COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has dropped to 0.87 from the previous 0.94, according to OCTA Research Thursday.

Based on its latest report posted on Twitter, OCTA said the 0.87 reproduction number "is considered low" as it is less than 0.9.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people that one COVID-19 case can infect. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

In the same report, OCTA said the seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases in the NCR dropped by 17% to 3,891, while the positivity rate also went down 18% from 21% the previous week.

“This gives us confidence that despite lower testing numbers the trend we believe is actually improving,” OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said in an interview on CNN Philippines on Thursday.

"Using Covid Act Now guidelines, NCR remained at high risk but could possibly improve to moderate risk within a week," OCTA said, referring to an independent group that provides local-level disease intelligence and data analysis on COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

OCTA said as of Thursday, six NCR areas are at moderate risk, namely Navotas, Manila, Malabon, Pasay, Valenzuela and Pateros.

David, meanwhile, expressed optimism that Metro Manila, Calabarzon, and Central Luzon are “winning” against the highly contagious Delta variant in light of the improving situation.

“As far as the NCR is concerned, I believe that we’re already seeing the Delta variant end game. We’re close to controlling this. I’m actually optimistic about that,” he said.

“We have seen that in other countries. They were able to manage the Delta surge in about two to three months. It’s happening right now in Metro Manila.”

NCR is under Alert Level 4, the second highest level in the government new alert system.

Under Alert Level 4, outdoor or al fresco dining services in restaurants and eateries will operate at a maximum of 30% venue or seating capacity regardless of vaccination status.

On the other hand, indoor dining or dine-in services may be allowed at a limited 10% seating capacity but will cater only to individuals fully vaccinated against COVID-19 in addition to a restaurant's allowed outdoor or al fresco capacity.

Alert Level 4 is set to expire on September 30. The government task force on COVID-19 pandemic is set to discuss whether or not it would extended starting October 1.

According to the Department of Health (DOH) on Monday, the Philippines has returned to a moderate-risk classification due to the declining number of COVID-19 cases.

The country had been under high-risk classification for more than a month prior to this development. —with Virgil Lopez/KBK, GMA News