NCR records 8% positive growth rate but OCTA says there is no upward trend

OCTA Research group on Monday assured the public that there is no indication of an upward trend in COVID-19 cases even as the National Capital Region (NCR) recorded a weekly positive growth rate of 8%.

In its latest report, OCTA said NCR registered a positive growth rate of 8% from November 8 to 14 after continuously recording negative growth rates since September 18.

“There is no indication yet of an upward trend in cases. At this time, we assume we are seeing readjustment of numbers due to backlog,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said.

According to OCTA, the seven-day average in new cases in NCR also increased from 404 to 435 while the reproduction number rose to 0.52 from 0.37.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

For her part, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that despite the positive weekly growth rate, the region’s total bed utilization rate and ICU utilization rate are at low risk.

NCR has a total bed utilization rate of 26.55%, a mechanical ventilator utilization rate of 21.09%, and an ICU utilization rate of 30.72%.

"For now, there is nothing to worry [about] yet based on the case metrics na meron tayo [that we have],” Vergeire said in a media briefing.

“‘Yung numero na kaso na nirereport, ‘yung trends natin, ‘yung epidemic curve, ‘yung reproduction number, positivity rate, wala pa tayong ganoong dapat ikabahala,” she added.

(Despite the number of cases reported, the trends, the epidemic curve, the reproduction number, positivity rate, there’s no need to worry.)

Vergeire also warned that cases may increase should there be a continuous decrease in compliance with public health protocols.

“With the continuous increase in mobility or the decrease in the compliance to safety protocols atsaka ‘yung nakikita nating crowding, nandyan ‘yung malaking probilidad na baka tumaas ulit ang ating mga kaso, kaya kailangan tulong tulong tayo,” she said.

(With the continuous increase in mobility or the decrease in compliance with safety protocols as well as the crowding, there is a big chance for cases to increase, so we all need to work together.)  —KBK, GMA News