Will rice prices skyrocket again this year?

(Aired last February 16 on News on Q) The question uppermost in the minds of Filipinos is: Will rice prices skyrocket again this year, the way they did last year? This is an important question because rice is a major part of the Filipino diet, accounting for 47% of our total calorie supply. The annual rice consumption of every Filipino is estimated to be between 110 kg and 118 kg a year on the average, which means roughly 1/3 of a kilo per day. Not only that, rice farming is the source of income and employment of about 11.5 million farmers and their family members. No wonder then that rice issues carry a great deal of political and economic weight in the country. So let us see how the question is answered by various sectors: IRRI - or the International Rice Research Institute - tends to think that prices will tend to move up again because the rice production estimates have been lowered by 4 % over the original estimates. They attribute this decrease in production estimates to farmers not being able to access credit, plus the increase in fertilizer and other input prices, which have become unaffordable. The NFA, however, says that there is not going to be any supply problem, because they already have something like 30 days worth of stocks in their warehouses, plus they are ready to import more this year. Frankly, this does not answer the question of rising rice prices, because last year there was no shortage of rice in the Philippines, but prices still rose to a high of P35.51 per kilo of regular-milled rice, which is 58% more than its price in the previous July of 2007. But this does not mean that the poor are going to suffer those higher prices. They will be taken care of. Why? because this year is the run-up to general elections in 2010, and this is where the political weight of rice comes into play. The NFA will surely continue the subsidy, hopefully, the family access cards distributed by the DSWD finding their way to the poorest of the poor. We should have a more targeted subsidy program. It also should not obscure the fact that our rice farmers are themselves in need of help. Remember that they themselves are part of the poor. Poverty in the Philippines is mostly an agricultural and rural phenomenon. If those farmers can be helped to increase their productivity, not only will we be spared the cost and the corruption involved in rice importations, we will be reducing poverty in the Philippines, which is after all, the name of the game. ("Analysis by Winnie Monsod" on News on Q which airs weeknights at 9:30 p.m. on Q.)