Global food supply threatened by climate change

Harvest time may not be quite as abundant as in previous years. The culprit? Climate change.  

Scientists have concluded that global warming makes it more difficult for crops to thrive in many parts of the world, posing a very real threat to the overall food supply, a “New York Times” report said. 

 

While rising temperatures have beneficial effects on crops planted in a few locales, in the coming decades global production of crops may be reduced by as much as two percent each decade, for the rest of the century. This is in comparison to what crop production would be without the influence of climate change.

 

This warning came from a leaked draft being developed by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the principal scientific body charged with reviewing and assessing climate science. The said document will still be subject to change before its final version is released in March, the report said.

 

The draft of the IPCC report was published in a blog hostile to the intergovernmental panel. 

 

Greatest risk in tropical countries

 

The impacts of climate change occurring across the planet are likely to intensify as human emissions of greenhouse gases continue to rise, the IPCC document warned.

 

According to the draft, some areas can benefit from global warming. The northern lands, for instance, are now marginal for food production. While temperate regions might fare better in the face of climate change, the agricultural risks “are greatest for tropical countries, given projected impacts that exceed adaptive capacity and higher poverty rates compared with temperate regions,” the draft report said.

 

It's true that efforts to adapt to climate change have already begun in many countries, but analysts opine that the efforts to reduce emissions yearly are “so far inadequate” to avert drastic climatic change later in the century, the “New York Times” report essayed. Far more intensive and expensive adaptation plans are likely to be required in the future.

 

Price spikes 

 

Reduction of food supply coupled with the increasing demand of a growing population, will drive up prices of food, scientists said. The demand for food is expected to soar to as much as 14 percent each decade for the rest of the century since the world population is expected to grow to 9.6 billion by 2050.

 

At the present, the world population totals to 7.2 billion, according to the United Nations. 

 

While many of those people in developing countries will have the money to eat richer diets, 

the world's poorest are going to get the short end of the stick. Climate change, particularly severe heat waves, was a factor in those price spikes, the same “NY Times” report said.

 

The IPCC report in 2007 was more hopeful. It did warn of the risks and potential losses in output in the tropics, but it also found gains in production at higher latitudes. The leaked draft reflects recent research that shows how sensitive crops appear to be affected by heat waves.

 

It also challenges previous assumptions about how much food production could increase in coming decades because of higher carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. The gas, albeit being the main reason for global warming, also acts as a kind of fertilizer for plants, the report said.

 

Hope of averting disaster

 

If the IPCC report is  proven correct, global food demand might have to be met by putting new land into production. 

 

This entails chopping down large areas of forests, an action that would only accelerate climate change by sending substantial amounts of carbon dioxide into the air.

 

The report also indicates that it is not too late for cuts in emissions to possibly have strong impact on climate change. The cost might be incurred in the next few decades, but the benefits will probably be seen by the late 21st century and beyond. – Kim Luces / KDM, GMA News