The link between El Niño and typhoons

Heat and drought are the first things that come to Filipinos' minds when talking about El Niño, but this complex weather phenomenon could also bring stronger storms in the months to come.

 

On March 11, PAGASA officially confirmed that El Niño has hit the country, warning Filipinos to prepare for the heat.

 

“A ‘weak El Niño’ is currently ongoing,” PAGASA said in a press release. “(This) is likely to affect rainfall patterns in different parts of the country in the coming months.”

 

El Niño is mostly associated with drought and heat, but that’s not the only effect it has on weather.

 

 

An El Niño year could actually mean increasingly stronger typhoons during the rainy season. In fact, in PAGASA’s press release, they noted that while the country might experience uncomfortable heat, the Philippines might be hit by stronger cyclones in the latter part of the year.

 

According to Vicente Malano, weather service chief at PAGASA, the El Niño could cause the behavior of tropical cyclones to become erratic, which would affect both their track and intensity.

 

“The tropical cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and (their) intensity could become stronger,” Malano said.

 

Though a classical El Niño phenomenon leads to drought in the West Pacific (the area where the Philippines is), it leads to increased rainfall in Peru and in the southern part of the US. The changes in sea temperature leads rainfall to “follow” the warmer eastern waters, bringing floods to that area and leaving drought in the western areas.

 

According to Nathaniel “Mang Tani” Cruz, GMA’s resident meteorologist, the El Niño event we’re experiencing right now isn’t a classical one—waters near the Philippines (the Western Pacific area) are actually warmer instead of colder. So we can’t expect less or weaker typhoons.

 

PAGASA explains that while more intense storms are a possibility, it’s not a given. Their predictions were based on historical data as well as data from the Niño3.4 region, the part of the ocean that the Philippines monitors. They also said that this El Niño is weak, so the possible water shortage isn’t going to be as severe as the ones in 1997 or 1998.

 

But this doesn’t mean that Filipinos shouldn’t prepare. PAGASA said that it’s better to be safe than sorry, and the people should plan for possible strong typhoons later in the year, while dealing with the rising temperatures in the short term. — TJD, GMA News