El Niño to last until second quarter of 2016

The ongoing strong El Niño event will probably last until the second quarter of 2016, around June.

 

El Niño is actually a natural phenomenon that occurs every 3-4 years. “ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) is part of the climate system,” said Anthony Lucero, OIC of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section.

 

One indicator of the onset of El Niño is the temperature in the Niño 3.4 region. If average temperatures over a course of three months have increased by or more than 0.5°C compared to normal, then that’s considered the onset of El Niño. Trade winds also weaken, and sometimes even reverse, during El Niño and cloud formation along datelines increases.

 

According to Lucero, almost all climate models agree that there’s a continuous warming of the Niño 3.4 region, with some saying that the anomaly could reach 3°C above normal.

 

This year’s El Niño is as strong as, and may even become stronger than, the 1997-1998 El Niño event, according to a press release from PAGASA. The main difference is that the 1997-1998 El Niño event only lasted 12 months while the current event may last for up to 20 months, explained PAGASA’s Dr. Flavy Hilario. The longer duration could mean worse impacts on the country, though this is offset by the fact that we have more modern interventions to help us prepare.

 

The following weather systems could possibly affect the Philippines from October 2015 to March 2016:
 

 

The Amihan for the December-January-February period is expected to be weak, with an early termination in February 2016.

 

From April-June 2016, the following weather systems could possibly affect the Philippines:
 

 

 

Fewer cyclones to come

Taking the El Niño into account, the number of tropical cyclones expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) for the following months is:
 

 

In October 2015, 23 provinces are likely to experience dry conditions, 10 provinces are likely to experience dry spells, and 6 provinces are likely to experience drought.

 

In December 2015, 7 provinces are likely to experience dry conditions, 27 provinces likely to experience dry spells, and 28 provinces are likely to experience drought.

 

In May 2016, 68 provinces are likely to experience moderate to severe drought.

 

The current El Niño actually began as a weak one in October 2014. It gradually gained strength and was upgraded to a strong El Niño earlier this month. — TJD, GMA News