PHL may experience year-long heatwaves, Pinoy scientist warns

An alarming new climate change study shows that the Philippines may see year-long heatwaves by the year 2050—putting Filipinos at high risk of heatsroke and even death.

The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change on June 19, was authored by the University of Hawaii at Manoa's Dr. Camilo Mora and his team of scientists, including Filipino PhD student Rollan Geronimo.

"We found that killer heatwaves around the world are becoming more common (due to climate change), and that this trend already seems unavoidable," Mora told Agence-France Presse.

But Geronimo told GMA News Online that the Philippines will be particularly hard-hit.

Half a year of heat waves in Luzon

Tuguegarao, which annually posts the hottest dry-season temperatures, may see deadly heat conditions for up to 220 days each year by 2050—and this annual spate of heat waves may extend to Manila and other parts of Luzon.

"For the past decade alone, we estimated that Manila and Tuguegarao have already been experiencing heat waves 100 days per year—almost all 'summer'-long—that could lead to heat-related deaths if people are exposed to the sun for prolonged periods," he said.

The study's projections show that the Philippines is one of several countries that could experience average daily temperatures in the high 30's on the Celsius scale—the same or hotter than normal body temperature—for hundreds of days at a time.

This, coupled with humidity especially in the tropics, makes for uncomfortable and potentially deadly conditions.

Year-long heat waves in Mindanao

More alarmingly, Mindanao—which traditionally posts cooler temperatures year-round than the rest of the country—may see year-long heatwaves by 2050.

"For Mindanao, almost the entire year—some 300 days out of 365—could have deadly heat conditions by 2050," Geronimo warned.

He explained that Mindanao's proximity to the equator may account for the surprising shift in temperatures.

"Most climate models predict the highest increase in mean temperature closer to the equator, so Mindanao's projected temperature change is often higher than for Luzon," he said.

More detailed studies recommended

According to Geronimo, a closer study of the Philippine climate should be conducted.

"We think using higher resolution models that account for topography and local monsoon activity would yield more accurate numbers," he said.

"Local conditions could still mitigate the actual risk of death but hotter days seem inevitable," Geronimo concluded. — GMA News (kvd)