PAGASA:'Short-lived' La Niña may begin as early as September

La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific might emerge as early as next month, the state weather bureau PAGASA said Tuesday.

"Model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-October-November season until the October-November-December season," PAGASA said in a statement.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are remarkably lower than normal during La Niña, the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

It is linked to above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the country and an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year.

PAGASA said that a La Niña Watch is issued when the probability of La Niña developing during the next six months is 55% or higher and the conditions are suitable for its formation. 

“Itong last quarter ng ating 2025 ay medyo mas maulan, higher probability ng above rainfall sa mga areas na identified based on the forecast in terms of rainfall impact,” said Ana Solmoro Solis, PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section chief, in Ivan Mayrina’s report in “24 Oras”. 

(The last quarter of our 2025 will be a bit wetter, with a higher probability of above-normal rainfall in the areas identified based on the forecast in terms of rainfall impact.) 

La Niña conditions were present for a few months in 2024 and early 2025.

PAGASA added that two to four typhoons are expected to enter the country in September.  It also said  that the number of typhoons for the whole year could reach up to 19.

“Last year po ay La Niña-like conditions din po tayo during the last quarter ng year. At naranasan natin itong mga sunod-sunod na bagyo embedded sa intertropical convergence zone. So may mga ganun na posible scenario at posible na sunod-sunod man yung bagyo, hindi man po necessary na marami ang ulan na dulot nito pero yung favorable cyclone development, nandoon ‘yun,” said Solis.

(Last year, we also had La Niña-like conditions during the last quarter of the year. And we experienced these successive typhoons embedded in the intertropical convergence zone. So there are possible scenarios like that, and it's possible that even if the typhoons are consecutive, it's not necessarily that they will bring a lot of rain, but the favorable cyclone development will be present.) 

The state weather bureau said that the Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Mimaropa will experience frequent rains next month. 

Likewise, rains will be frequent in October over Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Bicol, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, Eastern Visayas, Caraga, Soccsksargen, Davao Region, and Northern Mindanao. —Vince Angelo Ferreras/VBL, GMA Integrated News