PAGASA raises La Niña alert

The further cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial pacific has pushed the state weather bureau PAGASA to raise a La Niña alert. 

La Niña is characterized by an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year, PAGASA said. 

According to PAGASA's climate monitoring and analyses, there is a 70% chance of La Niña forming in October until December this year and is likely to persist until February 2026. 

“La Niña (cool phase of ENSO) is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. When conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next two months and the probability is 70% or more, a La Niña Alert is issued,” the state seismologists explained. 

“These could be brought about by several rain-bearing weather systems such as monsoons, severe thunderstorms, low pressure areas (LPAs), easterlies, shearlines and intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), that can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas,” PAGASA added. 

The state weather bureau earlier said that up to 15 tropical cyclones could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from September of this year to February.

PAGASA added there could be two to four tropical cyclones that could enter or develop in the PAR in the next two months.

Meanwhile, two to three cyclones could hit the country in November. 

Further, one to two cyclones may develop inside PAR in December. On the other hand, there could be none or at least one cyclone to enter the country by January and February of 2026, PAGASA added. — LA, GMA Integrated News