UAAP: All 16 Final Four scenarios explained

The Final Four of the 75th UAAP season is nearly upon us. All that's standing in the way are three, possibly four remaining games, plus a mess of could-be's, what-if's, and maybe's. There are 16 scenarios left to contemplate, with eight for if UST's protest against Ateneo is upheld and they beat the Blue Eagles (Scenarios 1b to 8b), and another eight if the protest is a flop, or if Ateneo beats them a second time (Scenarios 1 to 8).   In general, the two rules to remember are: Number one, the quotient system kicks in only if there's a tie between more than two teams OR if no advantage comes out of the decision besides seeding (you would use quotient to determine whether two tied teams should be 1/2, or 3/4, for example). And number two, playoffs are used to determine if someone gets an advantage or not (the difference between 2 or 3) or if someone gets in at all (4 or 5). Right now, Ateneo is at first with a 12-2 record, FEU and UST are tied at 9-4, and DLSU and NU are knotted at 8-5. And when all is said and done, the first seed plays the fourth, and the second seed plays the third, with numbers one and two sporting a twice-to-beat advantage. Got all that? Let's dive right in then. Scenario 1 In scenario 1, we assume UST beats UE, DLSU beats Adamson, and NU beats FEU. Should this be the case that plays out, then the top two seeds, the teams with twice-to-beat advantage, are Ateneo at number one and UST at number two. Who their opponents will be is a bit trickier to determine. NU, DLSU, and FEU will all be tied with 9-5 records. That means the quotient system will be used to rank the three of them. Right now, NU is on top with a +13 quotient, giving them third place. DLSU (-4) and FEU (-9) meanwhile will be forced into a playoff to get into the Final Four. Because the Bulldogs have to beat FEU to get here, their quotient is expected to go up even more, while the Tams' will sink, though that won't have any effect. Scenario 1b Should UST get their appeal and beat Ateneo, the Tigers would then assume the top position thanks to a superior quotient, as a result of having beaten them twice. The rest of the draw though, remains the same as the above scenario. Scenario 2 Scenario 2 has UST, DLSU, and FEU winning. That puts Ateneo on top, La Salle at fourth, and NU out of the running. Who are the second and third seeds though? With UST and FEU tied with 10-4 records, they'll need to duke it out again, effectively turning that into a best-of-three series, for the twice-to-beat advantage. Scenario 2b Surprisingly, Scenario 2b is more simple. UST and Ateneo take one and two respectively, FEU takes third, and DLSU goes fourth, without the need for another game. NU once more, has to accept missing out on the Final Four. Scenario 3 The way Scenario 3 unfolds is thus: UST wins, DLSU loses, and NU beats FEU. What happens next is that Ateneo and UST become one and two, respectively, and La Salle gets eliminated. FEU and NU wind up with identical 9-5 records, but because they're "battling" over just the third and fourth seeds, the quotient system applies here. Presumably, NU takes third after beating FEU twice, while the Tams sink all the way to fourth. Scenario 3b Just like the former, Scenario 3b only sees UST on top, with Ateneo second. DLSU is eliminated, and once again, NU and FEU have to settle their differences through quotient, with NU coming out on top. Scenario 4 What happens if UST wins, La Salle loses, and FEU wins? Double playoffs, that's what! Ateneo gets the top spot, and then lands some extra rest while the other four teams fight anew. With UST and FEU both tied at 10-4, they'll need to play each other, with the winner getting twice-to-beat and the loser settling for third. But La Salle and NU, with both sporting 8-6 cards, will have to go through a playoff as well, this one with heftier consequences. The loser of that game must kiss goodbye their post-season aspirations. Scenario 4b Once again, Scenario 4b is a bit less complicated, although it still has a playoff. UST gets the top spot, while Ateneo falls to second place. FEU gets solo third, but DLSU and NU still have to clash for fourth place. Scenario 5 Let's start looking at scenarios now where UST gets upset by the UE Red Warriors. Let's say DLSU wins, and NU wins as well. The result is the ultra-complicated quadruple tie of doom that has the four teams, NU, FEU, UST, and DLSU, all deadlocked at 9-5. How do you break this mess? For starters, you need to get the quotient of all four teams and use that to rank them. FEU leads the pack at +19, NU is next at +6, DLSU is -4, and UST is -21, as of writing, but after NU beats FEU anew, the Tamaraws' number will dip, while NU's will go up. That will then see NU and FEU play for number two, with the loser falling to third, and UST and DLSU taking part in an elimination game. Is there a chance DLSU can somehow be the opponent of NU? Sure, but it would have to be a massive one-sided blowout with the Tams losing by at least 26 points. Then the Tams would have to play UST in the loser-goes-home game. Scenario 5b No crazy four-way ties here, but there is a three-way tie, making this look exactly like Scenario 1b, just with Ateneo on top, and UST at second. Scenario 6 Say UST loses, DLSU wins, and FEU wins, what happens next? Well, Ateneo is comfortably in first place, while FEU takes second. DLSU and UST tie at 9-5, and will need the quotient to break their tie, while finally, NU has to settle for getting close, but not close enough. Here's the problem though: DLSU and UST are contesting the third and fourth spots. We'd normally use the quotient system to break this tie, but both teams have the same quotient as well, because UST won round one in double overtime by two points, and La Salle won in round two by two points. What happens next? Well, our guess is, a playoff, unless they'd settle for a coin flip. Scenario 6b Ateneo takes the top spot, while La Salle is content with fourth place, after booting out NU. We do have a playoff for second however, between UST and FEU, so yes, that's another best-of-three series between those two teams. Scenario 7 In the event UST loses, DLSU loses, and NU wins, Ateneo takes first, La Salle is eliminated, and we have another three-way tie to resolve, with FEU, NU, and UST at 9-5 in the standings. Right now, prior to the NU-FEU replay, FEU leads quotient-wise with +24, followed by NU at -3, and UST at -21 (this is the result of FEU's blowout win over UST in the second round). UST basically has to accept the fourth spot, while FEU and NU will figure in a playoff for the twice-to-beat advantage. Scenario 7b No three-way tie here. Ateneo gets the top spot, UST gets second, La Salle gets to start their off-season, and NU and FEU jockey for third and fourth through the quotient. Because NU has to win to trigger this scenario, the Bulldogs will claim the third spot, while FEU gets fourth. Scenario 8 What happens if UST, La Salle, and NU all lose? In the second-to-the-last scenario, Ateneo goes on top, FEU claims second spot again, with UST falling to third, and finally, there's a playoff for the right to enter the Final Four between La Salle and NU. Scenario 8b It's a bit appropriate that the last scenario be a tad tricky. So if UST loses both their game against UE and their rematch against Ateneo, DLSU loses, and NU loses, Ateneo still gets number one. UST and FEU tie at 10-4 and have to engage in a playoff for the twice-to-beat advantage, while NU and DLSU clash to stay alive, with both at 8-6.   Have a favorite scenario in mind for your team? Let us know in the comments! - AMD/CLP, GMA News