Numerophilia: UST vs NU - where 2 isn’t always greater than 3

These are the games that matter, where months and months of hard work, dedication and perseverance finally come together in the postseason. It’s Final Four time and what this article will do is look at the season’s worth of data gathered from both teams, analyze it and try to predict what factors will affect the outcome of this series. Basically, we’ll be looking at the story the numbers tell.

First up, it’s the University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers vs the National University Bulldogs. The UST Growling Tigers finished the season as the sole team with a 10-4 record, clinching a twice-to-beat advantage in the postseason. They’ll be facing the NU Bulldogs, who clinched their first Final Four appearance in 11 years with a win against FEU last Sunday. The UST Growling Tigers finished the first round with a 6-1 record to go along with an average Efficiency Differential (EffDiff) of +6.65, a number second only to Ateneo’s +13.55 and to NU’s 7.38. EffDiff is a solid indicator of how good a team is. It typically shows a team’s quality of players and depth of rotation – both of which are really good indicators of future success. Sadly, UST’s 1st round EffDiff was a fluke, because the team wasn’t able to keep up their blistering offense come the second round. What was once the best offense in the league (and by a large margin, I might add), one that scored 97 points per 100 possessions, morphed into a below average offense in the second round that scored just 89.52 points per 100 possession (league average for the second round is 94.11). Overall, in 14 games, UST scored 94.98 points/100 possession. With their defense holding steady stats-wise, one can conclude that it was their offense that made them finish the second round with a record of 4-3, a far cry from their 6-1 record in the first round.

	ORTG	DRTG	Eff Diff
UST (Round 1)	98.79	92.15	6.64
NU (Round 1)	94.32	86.94	7.38
UST (Round 2)	89.52	91.26	-1.74
NU (Round 2)	92.51	89.53	2.98

NU on the other hand, registered an Efficiency Differential greater than what most people expected in the first round registering an EffDiff that was 2nd in the entire league despite questions about their depth. Yes, NU has issues with their overall lack of offensive talent. And it’s true. There are 61 players who played a significant amount of time for their teams (15 min/g), that have an Offensive Rating greater than league average and used more than 15% of their team’s possessions while they were on the court. When we say “used” it means they either took the shot, got to the foul line or turned the ball over. Of those 61 players, six of them were from NU. Does that mean NU is actually a good offensive team? Not really. Only one NU player ranked in the top 10% of this class, Emmanuel Mbe, who ranked fifth best with an ORTG of 103.5 while using 22% of his team’s plays. Second was Bobby Ray Parks, who ranked eighth with an ORTG of 102 while using almost 33.7% of his team’s plays. Meanwhile, in the middle of the pack were Troy Rosario (21st), and Jeoffrey Javillonar (28th), while Dennice Villamor (58) and Gelo Alolino (61) brought up the rear. It’s also worth mentioning that based on the estimates, NU is better on offense when Parks is in the game. They are 5.2 points better with Parks on the court (or 5.2 points worse without him) to be specific. Remember, Efficiency Differential is calculated by subtracting the DRTG to the ORTG. So if we consider the fact that NU’s Efficiency Differential in 14 games is +5.91 (this means that their ORTG was 5.91 points higher than their DRTG) and Parks’ contributions to the defensive end are huge (meaning he could have made their DRTG better), then NU is probably the “easiest” team to defend among the Final Four hopefuls (ADMU, UST, NU, FEU, DLSU). I say “easiest” because Parks really isn’t that easy to defend, but I’ll elaborate further on this as we go along. So what factors will probably determine who advances to the Finals?    •    Bobby Ray Parks Jr. vs Jeric Teng The battle of each team’s premier perimeter scorer will be something to keep an eye on. Jeric Teng has the perfect build (6’2”, 175 lbs.) and tenacity to defend Parks. When teams put smaller players on BRP, he can simply rise above them for the score. When teams put taller, which usually means slower players on BRP, he can simply drive past them. Jeric Teng is neither small nor slow. Jeric Teng is no slouch on the offensive end either, where his volume three-point shooting (37.7% on 5.5 3PT attempts) will pull Parks farther away from the basket giving his teammates more room to drive and operate in the paint.    •    Emmanuel Mbe vs Karim Abdul This is an interesting matchup because although the two African centers are both efficient scorers and tenacious rebounders, they achieve their respective efficiencies differently. Abdul is a quick and agile center who likes to face-up. He’s quietly been one of the best jump shooting big men in the league along with the likes of Nico Salva and Eric Camson and has consistently made his 15-footers. This further opens up the entire floor for him to drive and use his quickness to drive by defenders. In a sense, Abdul is a very cerebral player. On the other side, Mbe is a more instinctive player who relies more on his power.  His strength and body build allows him to set very solid screens on pick-and-rolls which are usually followed by powerful rolls to the basket. When he catches the ball from three-feet inward, he elevates and uses simple hook shots and layups (sometimes, even powerful jams) to score. This is why Mbe’s effective field goal percentage (eFG) is much higher than Abdul’s (56.9% vs 47.1%). Mbe’s shots usually come from within a few feet from the basket while Abdul’s baskets come from different spots on the floor. So how does Abdul get such a great offensive rating if he isn’t making a good amount of his shots? He creates a lot of scoring opportunities for his team, not by assisting them on baskets, but by extending possessions (offering second and third opportunities for scores). This is where the rebounding battle will matter. Both players registered Total Rebounding Percentages of around 17 (16.7% for Abdul, 17.5% for Mbe). But one is the top offensive rebounding centers in the UAAP while the other is the top defensive rebounding center in the league. Since they’ll be matched up a lot with each other, it’s going to be Abdul’s offensive rebounding (14.4%, third in the UAAP) vs. Mbe’s defensive rebounding (first by a wide margin at 27%. Second is ADMU’s Greg Slaughter at 20.7%).    •    Hook, Foul Line and Sinker Both teams are actually very similarly built, in terms of their Four Factors. Their eFG% is eerily similar (42.89% for NU, 42.88% for UST). NU forces misses better (41.87% allowed eFG vs. 43.18% for UST), but UST takes care of the ball better (16.05% turnover rate or TOR vs. 18.21% TOR) while forcing more TOs (19.08% allowed TOR vs 16.92%). Overall, UST’s slight advantage in the turnovers battle is evened out by NU being the better rebounding team (though UST is also solid in that aspect). NU’s greatest advantage as a team over UST is their ability to get to the line, which starts and ends with Bobby Ray Parks, whose Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA) is an incredible 43%. If you want a better illustration, consider that 33% of Parks points come from the FT line. NU also gets 21.6% of their points from the FT line (second to Ateneo). So in order for UST to have any chance at advancing the Finals, they should find a way to not only force Bobby Ray Parks to miss open shots (not an easy task), give the ball up to teammates and/or turn the ball over, but they should also prevent him from getting to the FT line. That’s why I said NU is the “easiest” to defend because Parks is such a deadly scorer and points producer for his team that you’re most probably winning if you keep him in check. If not, then the Tigers should find a way to draw a lot of FTs to match NU’s FT numbers. This is not an easy task because UST is not a great FT drawing team (ranking third worst in free throw rate). There you have it – to summarize, there will be three battles to watch for in today’s game – the shooting guard match-up, the center match-up and the battle at the foul line. Those are three factors that will probably determine who advances to the Finals. Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, Humble Bola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. You can also follow him on Twitter.