Numerophilia: Looking for NBA doppelgängers of PBA players

Comparing PBA players and NBA players is such a hard thing to do. Because of the huge difference in talent level and the differing nature of basketball per league, it’s a struggle to make an apples-to-apples comparison. Nonetheless, I’ll try as hard as I can to make these comparisons, based on the numbers. Here are the three closest “doppelgängers” I was able to find. 1. Paul Lee and James Harden Paul Lee is bald and clean shaven, James Harden sports a faux-hawk and a beard that has its own reputation. Paul Lee is fair skinned, James Harden is dark skinned. These two players could not be more different in terms of look. But going past their appearance, you’ll see that Lee and Harden are cut from the same cloth. Why? Both are very efficient scorers and they do this in very similar ways. Both players love to do three things: attack the paint, shoot three's and get to the free throw line. Harden has career averages of 36.7 percent from three while taking almost five attempts per game. He also has career averages of 84.4 percent from the free throw line on 5.0 attempts. Paul Lee, for his career, shoots 33.9 percent on his per-game averages of 3.6 long-range shots. He hits 81.4 percent from the foul line on his 4.5 charity attempts per game.

	3PA	3P%	FTA	FT%	ORTG	USG%	AST
James Harden	5.0	36.7	5.5	84.4	12+ ave.	28.0	3.2
Paul Lee	3.6	33.9	4.5	81.4	10+ ave.	18.0	3.9

If you’re a stathead like me, you’ll come to understand that those three things are the pillars of scoring efficiency. For this conference, Paul Lee’s ORTG is 10 points above league average while Harden’s ORTG with Houston is 12 points above league average. There is a huge difference though in usage (Paul Lee’s USG% hovers around 18 percent while Harden’s USG% is about 28 percent), and their ability to finish at the rim. That’s partially because of two reasons. One, Paul Lee is still recovering from the shoulder injury he sustained last conference. Two, because of the lack of teams in the PBA, teams are deeper (especially Rain or Shine) and are therefore more inclined to share the rock. In the NBA, where superstars are one in a million, you want to maximize their efficiency by giving them more possessions. I have no doubt in my mind that if Paul Lee was given more responsibility on offense, he’d approximate Harden’s effect. The next question now is – how do they do those three things above? Both players love to get out in transition when the opportunity is there. They use their superior ball-handling skills and bulldog mentality to attack the rim relentlessly in transition. But one thing that stands out for me for both players is their ability to work the pick-and-roll. Because of their ability to shoot from deep and their quick first step, they can attack the PnR in a myriad of ways. Lee averages around 3.9 assists while Harden norms around 3.2 for his career. When all is said and done, a healthy Paul Lee is the PBA version of James Harden. He would be wise to attend the NBA preseason game in a couple of months and get pointers from the man in beard himself. 2. Mark Caguioa and Kobe Bryant The comparisons between these two are uncanny. Check this out: both of them play the same position, they both play with teams that have incredibly diehard fanbases, both are very famous in their respective leagues and both players are high volume scorers. Yes, Mark Caguioa is the closest approximate of Kobe Bryant in the PBA. Outside of those off-court comparisons, their games are also very similar. Both players are great isolation players that love to operate on the wing, right at the break of the three-point line. And because of their vast arsenal of moves, they can trick their way into the paint or simply pull up for their patented mid-range jumpers when opponents sag off. They’re also very good at getting to the free throw line where they convert at a high rate. For his career, Kobe averages around 7.6 free throw attempts per game while making 83.8 percent of them. On the other hand, Caguioa gets to the line around 4.0 times an outing while hitting 75.8 percent.

	FTA	FT%	AST
Kobe Bryant	7.6	83.8	4.7
Mark Caguioa	4.0	75.8	2.5

They can also operate in the post when their defenders are smaller than them. Of course, Kobe has more advanced moves than the guy they call “The Spark,” but Caguioa is no slouch in that regard. Despite their lean frames, they were still able to incorporate a couple (or in Kobe’s case, a lot) of post moves into their offensive arsenal. Besides playing in the post, they can also adopt the playmaker role in a pinch. We saw how Kobe was as a point guard this season, when he totaled 39 assists in three straight games, and he’s actually averaged 4.7 dimes per game for his career. Similarly, Mark Caguioa has had days when he totaled more than five assists, a mark that’s already very high in the PBA. And for his career, he’s averaged close to 2.5 dimes per game. However, the most obvious and most glaring comparison between the two is their cockiness and swagger; both players play the game with a certain demeanor that resembles one another. The two are stone cold players when on the court. They will attack you, they will destroy you and they will devour you. Prey have been left helpless by the scoring prowess of both these players. Of course this cockiness also covers up for a couple of issues with their efficiency. One wonders every time you’re watching one of these guys whether they are taking too many shots for themselves (which happens to both players) and hurting their team’s offensive efficiency in the process. The last comparison is that they’ve aged gracefully. Even at their advanced age (their birthdays are actually just a couple of months apart), they are still at the top of the totem pole in their leagues. Generations have passed them by and another generation threatens to take the mantle of “elite” away from them (with names like Durant, Rose, Westbrook, Harden and Griffin as the new NBA stars and the likes of Lee, Abueva, Fajardo, and Casio in the local league). And yet, here they still are, still scoring 20+ points (on good to great efficiency), getting five rebounds and dishing out a couple of assists game in and game out. 3. James Yap and Jamal Crawford James Yap has been the face of the PBA for almost a decade now. Ever since being drafted by the storied Purefoods franchise, after longtime franchise player Alvin Patrimonio decided to call it quits, his legacy as one of the better scorers in the league has slowly been built up. Similarly, Jamal Crawford came into the league as a young gunner expected to help a struggling Bulls franchise recover from the shock that was Jordan’s retirement. He didn’t stick around with that team (unlike Yap) but what he did get was a reputation as a dynamite scorer, capable of scoring 40 points at any time. However, the reputation of both players hides the fact that they're woefully inefficient scorers. Yes, I said it. James Yap is an inefficient gunner similar to Jamal Crawford and their styles of play highlight why. One thing that stands out is how in love they are with the “difficult” and “flashy” shot. Too many times, you’ll see James Yap and Jamal Crawford take an early 22-foot jumper over two defenders instead of doing the simple basketball play and dropping it off or giving the extra pass. Too many times, you’ll see James Yap and Jamal Crawford drive to the lane despite the opposing team packing the paint. James Yap also likes to execute some beautiful running floaters, finger rolls and reverse lay-ups, only to see the attempt clang off the ring. The same can be said for Jamal Crawford, whose dizzying left-to-right, behind-the-back crossover is among the many tricks he likes to pull.

	eFG%	TS%	FG%	3PT%	FT%
Jamal Crawford	47.6	52.7	41.1	35.0	85.3
James Yap	45.0	49.5	39.2	31.7	73.7

For his career, James Yap has an eFG% of 45 percent and a TS% of 49.5 percnet, not far from Jamal Crawford’s career eFG% and TS% of 47.6 percent and 52.7 percent, respectively. In fact, for his career, James Yap has shot better than 40 percent from the field only twice, his second and third seasons with Purefoods. For his career, James Yap is shooting 39.2 percent from the field, 31.6 percent from downtown and 73.8 percent from the line. Jamal Crawford is also an inefficient gunner. For his career, Crawford is shooting 41 percent from the field, 35 percent from downtown and 85 percent from the line. The comparison doesn’t stop there. The thing that makes both players so similar is the fact that they have the ability to turn on at any given time, a microwave of sorts. James Yap has had a couple of 30 and 40 point games that people like to talk about when discussing about his legacy. Jamal Crawford himself is no slouch, recording multiple 50, 40 and 30 point games in his 12 years in the league. Yes, they can go bananas at any time, but such is the belief of most inefficient scorers. Their success in one game should not overshadow the average performances they norm over a longer period of time. Luckily for James Yap, he’s played for a franchise and a nation that has embraced his ways. Because of this, he still has a chance to become a better player by taking better shots, moving the ball, and hoisting up fewer contested jumpers early in the shot clock. Plus, his frame provides a good base for a post game. The same cannot be said for Jamal Crawford, who before landing in Atlanta a couple of seasons ago, was part of the list of “players with the most games without getting into the playoffs”. Lucky for him, playing with Chris Paul, a floor general in the truest sense, has allowed Crawford to rewire his game and allow for more open looks and better shots, which means less of those contested jumpers and flashy tricks. - AMD, GMA News Nico Baguio holds a Masters Degree in Mathematics from the Ateneo de Manila University. He's currently a writer for SBNation's At The Hive and runs a website that focuses on using advanced statistics on the local hoops scene, Humble Bola. You can email him at contact@humblebola.com. You can also follow him on Twitter.