NBA semifinals preview: #2 New York Knicks versus #3 Indiana Pacers

Regular season series: Tied 2-2

• November 18: Pacers 76-88 @Knicks
• January 10: Knicks 76-81 @Pacers
• February 20: Knicks 91-125 @Pacers
• April 14: Pacers 80-90 @Knicks

The New York Knicks flew out of Boston humbled and hurt, looking nothing like that the team that took an early 3-0 lead. Hubris played a significant role in allowing the Celtics back in the series, highlighted by the words (and elbow) thrown around by J.R. Smith. After barely surviving a game six rally where the Knicks ceded 20 consecutive fourth quarter points to the Celtics, the Knicks will enter a bloodbath against the Indiana Pacers with superstar Carmelo Anthony not 100 percent after suffering a shoulder injury late in that same game. Knicks coach Mike Woodson knows that an unhealthy Anthony spells trouble, since he has used him in so many isolation plays, the same way he did with Joe Johnson back when he was coaching the Atlanta Hawks. New York has been an isolation-heavy unit. More than 15 percent of Knicks possessions ended as a clear-out play during the regular season, the highest rate in the league. Come playoff time, New York has relied even more on one-on-ones, devoting 26 percent to isolations. New York’s scoring comes in ebbs and flows, and it starts with the backcourt. Raymond Felton has seen an uptick in his stats despite being hounded relentlessly by Avery Bradley. He will need to create shots for his teammates and cannot settle into the spot-up shooter role in this series. Felton must engage the other options surrounding Anthony, avoiding the pitfall of turning them into passive spectators around the three-point arc. Iman Shumpert has also been rejuvenated at the right time. In his last three games, he has averaged 13.7 points and 8.0 rebounds, ably filling in for the struggling Smith. However, if the Knicks hope to win, Anthony must be clicking. He will face one of the league’s toughest wing defenders in Paul George. George’s 6’11” wingspan will be put to the test. Anthony is not just someone who will stop on a dime and pull up for a jumper, he will use his 20-pound advantage over the lankier George with an array of post moves. Within 10 feet of the rim, Anthony is almost always a sure two points, or at worst, two free throws. The best George can do is to not get into foul trouble while lowering Anthony's field goal percentage. Anthony has shot a respectable 44.9 percent all season, but that number takes a nosedive to 37.9 percent in three games against the Pacers. If George does get into foul trouble, expect Anthony to lock in to the basket with guys like Lance Stephenson and Gerald Green taking turns shadowing him. For Indiana, the tough part of George having to play Anthony face-up is that he can’t have his way with him on the other end. Expect Woodson to throw Shumpert on George to reduce Anthony’s fatigue. Indiana has not one, but two trump cards to counter New York’s iso-centric offense. The Pacers are the stingiest team when it comes to allowing three's, giving up a league-lowest 32.7 percent. To compound the Knicks’ concerns, the Pacers are the best rebounding team during the regular season (45.9 rebounds) and through the first round of the playoffs (49.3 rebounds). Credit goes to the unflinching committee of Roy Hibbert, David West, and George, who all grab close to eight rebounds a night, each. In addition, although the Knicks have a frontline that can bang inside against Indiana’s bigs, Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin only handle defensive duties, while Hibbert and West are two-way monsters. The possible return of Amar’e Stoudemire may help that, but his timetable remains uncertain and Steve Novak is more likely to make an appearance sooner. The Pacers’ x-factor will be George Hill, who has served as a barometer of the entire team’s performance. Against the Hawks, Hill averaged 19.0 points and shot 47.6 percent from downtown in four wins. In the two losses, his average plummeted to 7.5 points and he went 0-of-9 from beyond the arc. Pacers coach Frank Vogel will have to keep Hill’s spirits up, constantly reminding him that he is the best point guard of the series despite the presence of Felton, future Hall of Famer Jason Kidd, and wily old-rookie Pablo Prigioni. The series tilts towards the Pacers because they can play the Knicks’ tendencies of hero-ball right into their hands. Superior rebounding and closing out are hustle plays that stay consistent regardless of a bad shooting night. With a more versatile front court, the Pacers are primed to pound the Knicks inside to a pulp. The Pacers will win ugly. Luckily, in a game of hoops, aesthetic points do not count. Prediction: Pacers in 6 - AMD, GMA News