NBA Eastern Conference Finals preview: #1 Miami Heat vs #3 Indiana Pacers

Regular season series: Pacers 2-1

• January 8: Heat 77-87 @Pacers
• February 1: Heat 89-102 @Pacers
• March 10: Pacers 91-105 @Heat

Most Valuable Player versus Most Improved Player.

Defending champion versus dark horse contender.

Numerous narratives surround the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers as they get reacquainted after a six-game slugfest in last season’s Eastern Conference semifinals. The Pacers have evolved and grown up so much from last year. This is a unit oozing with confidence, who firmly and legitimately believe that they have the tools to finally win it all. But so do the Heat, who learned the value of coming together to win a ring and now understand the high degree of difficulty defending the crown.

Much like last season, the physicality of the series will be through the roof. Every push, shove, and other extra-curricular activity will serve as a reminder of what is at stake. The hard hacks on Dwyane Wade and Udonis Haslem from last year have not been forgotten. Former Heat benchwarmer Dexter Pittman set the tone when he elbowed Lance Stephenson as a retaliatory message for the latter’s choking gesture.

Now, LeBron James takes on Paul George in an unorthodox battle of small forwards. George was unable to keep New York Knick Carmelo Anthony in check in the previous series, as the scoring champion went for averages of 28.5 points on 43.3 percent shooting in six games. However, Anthony was a stop-and-pop shooter, whereas James prefers to operate on the lower left block. George does have additional help in Roy Hibbert and David West in the paint should James repeatedly beat George with a quick first step.

On paper, Indiana reprises its role as the anti-Heat. They are a collection of post players who will neither be bullied nor backed down in the shaded area. Led by the front court trio of Hibbert, West, and George, the Pacers are a three-headed rebounding monster that punishes teams that go small against them. In three regular season meetings against Miami, Indiana convincingly won the battle of the boards, 122-99. This was highlighted in their first meeting, when Hibbert (14), West (11), and George (11) combined for 36 rebounds, equaling the production of the entire Heat roster.

West will be expected to carry the scoring load of the Pacers in this series. With James hounding George and Chris Bosh covering Hibbert for extended stretches, West will have to earn his points over Haslem. West is known for his wide array of post moves, from a sweet fadeaway to a well-contested put-back finish. West’s mid-post game serves as a bandaid for a below-average Pacers offense that has a tendency to go for stretches having to bleed for baskets. He averaged 22.7 points and 7.7 rebounds on a proficient 65.7 percent shooting in three games against the Heat.

Forced to take on minutes with the absence of Danny Granger, Stephenson has been a serviceable two-guard, allowing George to slide to his more natural small forward spot. He only played a grand total of seven minutes against the Heat last season and will be demanded to stay in front of Wade. Even with Wade nursing a bruised right knee, it will be a tall order for Stephenson to keep the clamps on the former Finals MVP. Stephenson and George must stay free from any foul trouble, lest Pacers coach Frank Vogel sub the two out for the likes of Gerald Green, Sam Young, and Orlando Johnson, a precipitous drop in efficiency on both ends of the floor.

In addition, Indiana must limit its turnovers. In the two wins against the Heat, the Pacers only threw away the ball an average of 10.5 times while doing so 16 times in their lone defeat. Miscues are problematic, not only for the Pacers, but also for any other opposing team that goes up against the Heat. A breakaway dunk by James or Wade is more than enough to ignite or deaden a crowd, swinging momentum 180 degrees in the process.

The spotlight may shine too bright though. Indiana is in territory long unchartered. The last time this team reached this deep into the playoffs was back in 2004. Back-up center Ian Mahinmi is the lone man on the roster who logged playing time in the conference finals, seeing one minute of garbage time action with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011.

Heat coach Erik Spoelstra acknowledges the strides the Pacers have made. He said that if Miami is as good now as they were last year, it will not be enough to beat this version of the Pacers. Many pundits have pointed out the significant uptick in numbers from George, Stephenson, and Hibbert.

However, Miami is parading Bosh, who will definitely play more than just the first half of game one. Ray Allen will stretch the floor and give James and Wade a little more room to attack the rim. Chris Andersen will make the rebounding battle a little less lopsided. Most importantly, the assimilation of Norris Cole into the rotation gives the Heat another option should Mario Chalmers go cold from downtown.

As mentioned above, Wade is the biggest red flag of the Heat in this series. Though he stepped up for crucial baskets in the series-clinching game five win over the Chicago Bulls, Wade only stepped to the free throw line six times the entire series, a key measure of his missing explosiveness. But the Heat enter into battle knowing that the Pacers are not in full strength as well. West (lower right leg), Hibbert (right thumb), and George Hill (concussion) will be hobbling a bit when the series goes underway.

The Heat’s trump card has been all about playing its three best players flanked by two reliable spot-up shooters. James, Wade, and Bosh will be complemented with Shane Battier and Allen. Surprisingly, this line-up has not yet been fielded all postseason long but this trump card will have to be unleashed soon if the Heat want their best chance of winning. The Heat can survive without a point guard in the waning minutes; what they need in the endgame is a sure-fire closer.

Pace and space.

Ground and pound.

This series will be all about establishing identity. The Heat and Pacers know who they are, but they will be doomed the moment they start falling into the trap of playing into the other team’s brand of basketball.

The Heat will outpace the Pacers in another bloodbath. Another rivalry is born.


Prediction: Heat in 6