FilOil: NCAA upstarts Arellano clash against PCCL champs UST

The Arellano University-University of Santo Tomas FilOil match-up will be a skirmish fought with barrages of long-range shots and blistering open-court possessions, as Arellano has remodeled its game into a run-and-gun team that even relies on open shooters in dire halfcourt situations, while UST has anchored its offense on the wing production provided by two of the top five scorers in the tourney, Aljon Mariano (19.9 points, third in the league) and Jeric Teng (18.5 points, fifth best).

While tough defense from both the Chiefs and the Growling Tigers is a given, this encounter is going to be fun as each offense tries to one-up on each other, and the result is going to be an exhilarating scoring race until one side eventually runs out of gas.

Placing sixth in the NCAA last season, things should look up for Arellano this year, after being awarded permanent member status in their collegiate league and then placing second in Group A play of the FilOil standings with a 6-2 card, losing only to the top-seeded NU Bulldogs and the Terrence Romeo-led FEU Tamaraws, who didn't make the postseason.

The team features long-limbed shooters who know their roles perfectly, and coach Koy Banal has done a great job rotating his many scorers to produce a high-octane offense that has been efficient at closing out games early.

Last season's UAAP’s second-placers have taken out their frustrations on the Blue Eagles in both the championship round of the PCCL and the elimination round of the FilOil, but have been a step slower in other games.

In particular, Karim Abdul has been a shell of his former self, playing patchy basketball that leaves coach Pido Jarencio no choice but to require his wings to do most of the heavy-lifting on offense. The Growling Tigers stumbled out of the gate to start the Premier Cup, but picked up momentum late by winning three of their last four games, booking a quarterfinals seed in the process.

The Arellano Chiefs will win because...

They have a roster of players that know their limits and play according to the roles that coach Banal sets in his gameplan. Point guard Nard Pinto, whom his coach compared to former FEU floor general Denok Miranda, can be adequately replaced by Team B shoo-in Gio Jalalon (6.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists in 17.8 minutes per game). Ralph Salcedo, Levi Hernandez, and Allen Enriquez are essentially the same player, who despite their reed-thin frames, can finish strong in the open court and hit the open jumper, while Fil-Canadian Zach Nicholls is a terrific zone buster with an accurate touch from distance.

To discount their star players’ contributions would be missing the elephant in the room though, as the team owes much of its preseason success to marquee players James Forrester, Prince Caperal, and Pinto. Forrester has been emblematic of the run-and-gun style that these Chiefs employ, and has been a solid scorer and finisher for his team in the preseason (15.1 points, 41 percent shooting from deep). Pinto makes sure everyone gets their right share of the possession pie, finding the open shooter en route to leading the preseason in assists (6.5 per game).

Caperal’s worth might not show on paper (6.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG), but the wiry center uses his finesse and his terrific footwork in the paint to make crucial baskets when they run out of time in halfcourt sets. Also blessed with a soft touch within 20 feet of the basket, Caperal rounds up a lethal first five that will require coach Jarencio to exert his boys early by playing man-to-man.


The UST Growling Tigers will win because...

UST now features a two-pronged attack, as Teng, their captain, has vastly improved with regard to toughness and has added an effective turn-around jump shot to rack up easy points. Teng is far from the one-dimensional shooter he was in his freshman year, asserting himself offensively by going hard to the hoop when he gets the chance.

Although Teng is captain, Mariano is the engine that drives UST’s offense.  Defenders usually face a pick-your-poison scenario when guarding Mariano, one of the UAAP's best one-on-one player, who can blow by defenders with fearless drives to the hoop, draw quick fouls off those tricky pump fakes, or knock down the open 15-footer with relative ease.

The reliance on Teng and Mariano is a necessity, as center Karim Abdul has been nursing an injured knee all throughout the preseason. As a result, his play regressed, averaging just 9.8 points and 8.7 rebounds in 24.5 minutes per game. Coach Pido tried filling that big, gaping hole at center with the likes of Paulo Pe and Robert Hainga, but neither of them could generate the post presence that Abdul established in the UAAP last season (15.8 points, 11.6 rebounds, 1.7 blocks).

The X-Factor:

For AU: Nard Pinto is the pilot of coach Banal’s offense, and is tasked to find the right shooter. Arellano struggles when their snipers are locked down and the team resorts to isolation plays for Forrester, and so Pinto’s drive-and-dish game will be in full display once the Growling Tigers put on a press. The Tigers also lack a seasoned point guard, a mismatch that Pinto can exploit with his solid shooting ability and his hefty frame.

For UST: Karim Abdul and Kevin Ferrer will have to step up, as UST’s top two scorers need as much help as they can on the scoring end. Coach Jarencio mentioned that Abdul was up to speed in their last game against EAC but played in limited minutes because of a wardrobe mishap, while Ferrer had to rest an ankle injury that he sustained in a D-League game. If either can provide an extra scoring punch, the Tigers can see their preseason stint extended and live to fight once more at the very least.

And the winner is...

AU, but only because Karim Abdul’s recovery is more speculation than fact at this point. No doubt that last year’s version of Abdul would have provided UST much-needed interior scoring and floor spacing, which in turn would give UST’s shooters all the daylight they need, but there has been none of that so far in the Growling Tigers’ first eight games. Coupled with UST's lack of production from the point guard position, and the Chiefs look like the more loaded team with enough guns to shoot themselves to a semifinals slot. - AMD, GMA News