PBA finals: 3-2 lead is crucial

How important is a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series? On Wednesday, February 21, the Barangay Ginebra Kings and San Miguel Beermen will fight for that lead in the best-of-seven finals series of the Talk 'N' Text PBA Philippine Cup. Whoever wins Game 5 would certainly try to clinch the title in Game 6. History would certainly be on their side. Since the best-of-seven series was introduced in the 1982 Reinforced Conference Finals, 20 of 26 teams (or 77 percent) which won Game 5 after a 2-all tie — 23 of them in the finals — went on to win the series, with 12 of the 20 clinching the series in Game 6. Since 1999, 14 of the 15 teams which took a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series (after a 2-2 split), or 93 percent, went on to win the series, with 10 of the 14 clinching it in Game 6. The most recent team to lose a best-of-seven series after leading 3-2 (and the only team to do so since 1999) was Talk 'N' Text in the 2002 Commissioner's Cup Finals against Red Bull. Meanwhile, both teams chalked up some notable statistics in Game 4 last Friday, February 16. The Barangay Ginebra Kings used a 30-9 run in the second quarter to break the game wide open, turning a 35-39 deficit into a commanding 71-46 halftime lead. In the third quarter, Ginebra poured in more heat, scoring 45 points — the highest by any team in the conference — against the Beermen's 29, enabling the Kings to gain more momentum en route to posting leads of as much as 41 in the final period. Best Player of the Game: Jay-Jay Helterbrand 28 pts, 10 of 17 FGs, 9 rebs, 3 asts, 1 stl. A total of six Kings finished with double-figure scores, led by the 25 of Best Player of the Conference Mark Caguioa. Barangay Ginebra shot 55.1 percent from the field, the highest in a PBA Finals since the Kings' 57.1 percent in a 106-105 win over Talk 'N Text in Game 2 of the Philippine Cup title series 2 seasons ago. Dondon Hontiveros made 20 points for San Miguel Beer, which had five players in double figures in a game they lost, despite shooting a decent 49.4 percent from the field and despite welcoming back Danny Ildefonso after a three-game absence due to a right-ankle injury. The loss also spoiled Olsen Racela's becoming only the ninth player in PBA history to have made at least 500 triples in a career, which he accomplished in the second period. The 35-point difference was the 3rd most lopsided in PBA Finals history, next only to Alaska's 99-61 win over the Beermen in Game 6 of the 1998 All-Filipino Cup Finals and Talk 'N' Text's 102-66 win over the Kings in Game 3 of the 2004-05 Philippine Cup title series two seasons ago. Barangay Ginebra's 146 points was also the most by any team in a game in more than 10 years or since a 149-122 Ginebra win over Mobiline on Oct. 6, 1996, in Cebu City in the PBA Governors Cup. The 35-point win was also Ginebra's biggest in a PBA finals, eclipsing the previous record the Kings recorded two nights earlier. Before this series, Ginebra's most lopsided win in a championship series was its 130-101 decision over Shell in Game 5 of the 1990 First Conference title series, In a PBA Finals, the 146 was also the most in a PBA Finals in 17 years or since Shell defeated Anejo 156-134 in Game 6 of the 1990 First Conference last dance. San Miguel Beer's 111 points was the highest losing score in a PBA Finals since Game 2 of the 1994 Governors Cup when Alaska defeated Swift 119-111. It was also the 1st time in PBA Finals history a team lost by at least 30 points in back-to-back games. Overall in the PBA, no team has lost by at least 30 points in back-to-back games since the 1992 Third Conference. It was also the Kings' biggest winning margin since the 1992 Third Conference. For SMB head coach Chot Reyes, it was his worst defeat since a 113-76 rout by Mobiline on March 19, 2000, in the All-Filipino Cup elims when he was still handling Pop Cola. Dating back to the elims, the Kings have now won 13 of their last 18 games. Despite the Games 3 and 4 losses, the Beermen still have won 13 of their last 18 games and 19 of 26 after a 0-3 conference start. It was San Miguel Beer's 1st back-to-back losses since its 0-3 start in the conference. So far in this series, the team which has won the following game statistic has always ended up winning the game: field-goal percentage, turnovers, points off turnovers, starters' scoring, second-quarter scoring, and lead after three quarters. The series so far is following the trend of both teams' previous championship showdown which happened in the 2001 All-Filipino Cup. In that best-of-seve series, San Miguel Beer won the first two games, Barangay Ginebra drew level by winning the next two games before the Beermen wrapped it up with victories in Games 5 and 6. With their Games 3 and 4 wins, the Kings became only the 8th team in PBA history to level a best-of-seven series after being down 0-2. The most recent team to have also done the feat was Purefoods against Red Bull in last year's Fiesta Conference Finals. Out of 28 teams which lost the first two games of a best-of-seven series, Barangay Ginebra is looking to become only the fifth to overcome the deficit and win the series. Only four teams have so far done the feat: Purefoods (against Alaska in last year's Philippine Cup semis), Talk 'N Text (vs. Coca-Cola in the 2003 All-Filipino Cup finals), Purefoods (vs. Alaska in the 2002 Governors Cup finals), and Toyota vs. San Miguel Beer in the 1982 Reinforced Conference finals. Barangay Ginebra is looking to win three straight games in a PBA finals for the first time since its 1997 Commissioner's Cup against Alaska. The Ginebra franchise has actually always gone on to win the championship whenever it won three in a row in the PBA finals: 1997 Commissioner's Cup vs. Alaska, 4-1 (won Games 1, 2, and 3); 1991 First Conference vs. Shell, 4-3 (won Games 5, 6, and 7); 1986 Third Conference vs. Manila Beer, 4-1 (won Games 3, 4, and 5). San Miguel Beer has not lost 3 straight games in a PBA Finals since the 1993 All-Filipino Cup (Games 2, 3, and 4) against Coney Island, which was then handled by rookie coach Chot Reyes, who led his team to the title after six games. In 27 previous PBA Finals appearances, that was the only team the SMB franchise was beaten 3 in a row in a championship series. How important is a 3-2 lead in a best-of-seven series? Since the best-of-7 series was introduced in the 1982 Reinforced Conference Finals, 20 of 26 teams (or 77 percent) which won Game 5 after a 2-all tie - 23 of them in the Finals -- went on to win the series, with 12 of the 20 clinching the series in Game 6. Since 1999, 14 of the 15 teams which took a 3-2 lead in the best-of-seven series (after a 2-2 split), or a higher 93 percent, went on to win the series, with 10 of the 14 clinching it in Game 6. The most recent team to lose a best-of-seven series after leading 3-2 (and the only team to do so since 1999) was Talk 'N' Text in the 2002 Commissioner's Cup Finals against Red Bull.