Full-Court Press: Down to do-or-die for La Salle and UST

When the final buzzer sounds on Saturday at the MOA Arena, either the DLSU Green Archers or the UST Growling Tigers will be crowned UAAP champions of Season 76, after things boiled down to a winner-take-all game three.

What factors will dictate this series, who needs to step up, and who can sway this crucial game? Our panel of five hoops experts had this to say:
 

1. Who's been the better coach in the Finals, UST's Pido Jarencio or DLSU's Juno Sauler?

Polo Bustamante, From the Stands, contributor to GMA News Online -  I have a newfound respect for both coaches. The cool and calm Sauler has gotten a strong grasp of his rotation, putting his best players in the right situations. Jarencio meanwhile has been the master of the "hugot," using John Sherrif and Paolo Pe effectively in the series. There's been no clear advantage for either coach.

Carlo Pamintuan, sports desk editor, GMA News Online - Sauler is better with his Xs and Os. His decision to play a shortened rotation in game two was gutsy, but Jarencio is still the better coach because he always gets the best out of his players. This UST team has no business hanging with DLSU on paper, but Jarencio has squeezed every last bit of talent out of his players.

Job De Leon, writer, GMA News Online - Sauler, for making the adjustments he did in game two. The reason why DLSU scores so well in the paint against UST is the result of creative cutting and passing around the post area, as opposed to them going one-on-one against Karim Abdul in game one. The points in the paint and assists stats of DLSU bear this out.

Nico Baguio, owner and editor of HumbleBola, columnist for GMA News Online Sports - I think Jarencio has done a marvelous job keeping his team close with a more talented (on paper) La Salle team. His timely use of full-court presses and traps go well with the long arms of his boys. The margin is slim, but my vote goes to Pido.

Chuck Araneta, From the Stands, contributor to GMA News Online - Cop-out answer: they've both won a game so they've balanced each other out. While Jarencio got the first win by unleashing Kevin Ferrer on the Archers, Sauler responded by maximizing the best front court in the UAAP today. That's what makes this third game so compelling: Now that both coaches have their cards on the table, who has the high card hidden behind their sleeve?
 

 

 

2. Who's been the better Teng in the Finals, Jeron or Jeric?

Polo - Poppa Alvin must be proud of his boys. Jeric has been lighting it up in the Finals, showcasing his arsenal of scoring moves. Jeron has been a do-it-all forward for his team, making the right plays and working well off the post. This is a toss-up that even Alvin wouldn't want to answer.

Carlo - Jeric is having the better Finals because he is the better player. Jeron on the other hand does not have to play as well as Jeric does because he has more help.

Job - It's not Jeric Teng's fault that his shoti has more help, and I doubt that if they exchanged places, Jeron would shine as much as Jeric has in these two games. Plunge through the defense? Check. Absorb contact and finish a 20-footer? Why not? Grown man three-pointers? All day. Those are things Jeron hasn't quite gotten a handle on yet.

Nico - Jeric has played the better series so far. He's been more efficient (52.4% vs 41.8% TS%), has done a good job of taking care of the ball (8.5% vs 8.9% turnover rate) and is doing a better job in his role as his team's main scorer.

Chuck - I've developed a new-found respect for Jeric Teng in this series. Whether it's making clutch shots in game one or single-handedly keeping his team alive in their game two loss, Jeric has shown that UST would have ended up as a higher seed if he were healthy throughout the season. But Jeron Teng playing in his first UAAP Finals series has been impressive as well, as he's shown a better passing game and willingness to defer. This kid has been improving right before our eyes.
 
 

 

3. Which player's poor performance has most affected his team's chances of winning?

Polo - Someone put a wanted poster out for Aljon Mariano. The Tigers' smooth post operator has been missing the entire Finals series. He's shrinking against the huge frontline of DLSU, playing tentative and scared. In a series where UST is already outgunned, missing another weapon like Mariano can spell doom for the Growling Tigers.

Carlo - Kevin Ferrer's game two performance cost his UST Tigers the game. The Tigers are tough to beat when the lanky forward is playing well, but when Ferrer is out of his game, the pressure all falls on Jeric Teng's shoulders. Ferrer lost his composure in game two. The Tigers need him to play like he did against NU to have a shot at winning the series.

Job - It might not be completely fair to peg Aljon Mariano here, but it is what it is. His inability to produce allows DLSU's defense to key in more on Abdul. Conversely for La Salle, it's scary how they can win even with Jason Perkins underperforming.

Nico - Aljon Mariano. The guy has been invisible through two games and this has placed the brunt of the pressure on Jeric Teng and Karim Abdul's shoulders. UST already finds itself having a hard time scoring with efficiency, but the La Salle defense and the sudden Houdini act from Aljon Mariano is not helping.

Chuck - Kevin Ferrer's absence in game two was pretty evident, but Aljon Mariano has been invisible this entire series. A veteran whom Coach Pido counts on to provide support for Jeric Teng, he has been unable to elevate his game beyond the occasional points made. Chalk it up to nagging bone spurs or foul trouble, but Mariano is going to have to break out and prove that he can play on the big stage to deliver one more win for UST.

 
 

 
 

4. On a scale of 1-5 (5 = highest), how much has officiating affected this series?

Polo - Not much, maybe a 2. It's been called pretty fairly for the most part. It's a huge blow though for the Tigers for any of their big men to be in foul trouble especially against the big, bad DLSU frontline. DLSU will continue to pound the ball inside and the refs should watch-out for all the contact on the inside.

Carlo - About a 4. The fouls called on Karim Abdul have been one of the biggest factors in this series. Against Norbert Torres, Arnold Van Opstal, and Jason Perkins, the Tigers cannot afford to have Abdul on the bench for long stretches.

Job - Maybe a 3. AVO got into foul trouble early in game one, and the same happened to Abdul in game two. The team with the big man left standing went on to take control of the game.

Nico - 1. As I always say, rarely do I believe that officiating, whether good or bad, affects a game. UST lost game two because they couldn't find a way to score. Abdul's foul troubles aside, UST's issues are bigger than the officiating.

Chuck - 3.5. These games haven't pretty to watch due to the high number of fouls called on both teams, but it's up to the players and coaches to adjust to how the refs are calling the games. Thus far, DLSU has had the advantage in points at the stripe as they've made it a point to attack the shaded area with Jason Perkins, Norbert Torres and Arnold Van Opstal. UST will need to find a way to stay out of foul trouble and protect Karim Abdul.

 
 

 
 

5. Who wins game three and why?

Polo - DLSU has the more talented frontline, their guards are explosive offensively and they have a unique talent in Jeron Teng. Pride, Puso and Palaban can only take you so far. The Green Archers have figured it all out under Sauler and they will once again take their place at the top of the UAAP.

Carlo - I'll stick with my earlier prediction and go with La Salle. There's just too many volatile components with UST. They are scary when they're clicking, but for close-out games, I always side with the team that is more consistent.

Job - I expect DLSU to start aggressively and put the Tigers in a hole like in game two. Unless UST can defend the interior smarter (which was probably only the first 15 minutes of game one) then the Archers have this in the bag.

Nico - Hard to tell but despite my allegiance, I've always thought La Salle was the team-to-beat (other than NU). Of course, UST found a way to beat NU, so anything goes.

Chuck - La Salle by eight points. It's one thing to know that their front court is daunting, but it's a totally different story figuring out how to stop them. While UST has the better backcourt and swingmen, DLSU has done enough to help lessen the damage done by them. At the end of the day, it's Abdul trying to fend off the Archers' bigs. He won't be able to do it on his own.