2014 NBA Eastern Conference Finals preview: Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

#1 Indiana Pacers 56-26 defeated #8 Atlanta Hawks in seven games and #5 Washington Wizards in six games
#2 Miami Heat 54-28 defeated #7 Charlotte Bobcats in four games and #6 Brooklyn Nets in five games

Season series: Tied 2-2

December 10: Heat 84-90 @Pacers
December 18: Pacers 94-97 @Heat
March 26: Heat 83-84 @Pacers
April 11: Pacers 86-98 @Heat

From the moment the Miami Heat sent the Indiana Pacers fishing after game seven of the 2013 East Finals, the fireworks were already set in place for another anticipated showdown within the next 12 months. Though there were a couple of blips and swoons that could have changed the storyline, viewers will not be denied what might be the fiercest rivalry gripping hold of the league today.

The animosity between both teams scales even higher this year. All season long, the Pacers have pinned the donkey’s tail on the Heat’s back in a show of intimidation and bravado. Paul George is out to prove that he and LeBron James are on equal footing. David West has been a picture of consistency while Roy Hibbert and George Hill have both wavered between extremely frustrating and tantalizingly intriguing. And of course, in typical Born Ready fashion, Lance Stephenson has already made remarks about letting Dwyane Wade’s knees flare up in this series.

Meanwhile, there is a collective tension in Miami. Forget how it took the Heat only nine games to subdue their opponents in the first two rounds. Indiana poses real matchup issues against the Heat, something that momentum and rest will not be able to neutralize. X’s and O’s will play as much of a factor as talent and heart, and Miami cannot devolve into a one-man show the way they did in key stretches against the Brooklyn Nets.

No team can truly claim to have the Heat’s number, save for the 2011 Dallas Mavericks. The Pacers may still have something to prove in terms of consistency, but if they get dialed in physically and psychologically, they could be the very first top seed to produce an upset of sorts against the two-time defending champions.

#1 Does Miami already have an optimal lineup to counter Indiana’s size?

Unless Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra decides to unlock the Pandora’s box known to many as Greg Oden, Miami does not have a true big man who can go toe-to-toe against Hibbert. And even with Oden on the court, there is very little to be encouraged about. In the six minutes Oden was on the floor, Hibbert scored nine points and went on to finish with 21 overall, during their regular season matchup.

Chris Andersen is primarily a deluxe help defender, so stopping Hibbert or West on post-up plays is not his bread and butter. Expect Andersen’s role to revolve around making George and Stephenson think about taking eleven-foot runners rather than blasting down a couple of tomahawk dunks. If Andersen does get switched on Hibbert, he cannot afford to get sandwiched in pick-and-rolls and let Hibbert operate in the low post.

The Heat’s best bet is 6’8” Udonis Haslem, even if he gives up nearly half a foot, as well as verticality, because of his ability to front either Hibbert or West. For the past two postseason meetings against Indiana, Haslem has been a necessity, not a luxury. The Heat relied so much on his baseline jumper that it is akin to a corner three. Only he and Chris Bosh have the capacity to draw Hibbert out enough to give James and Wade enough room to barrel to the basket.



#2 Other than using LeBron James, which matchups can the Heat exploit?

The dual shooting guard tandem of Wade and Ray Allen should see more action together. Brooklyn gave the Heat similar issues with larger perimeter guys in Joe Johnson and Shaun Livingston. Now equipped with the knowledge on how to keep those two in check, Stephenson, Hill, and Evan Turner are looming. Stephenson may be the team’s primary ballhandler, but by no means is he elite. He falls into bad habits of being too cute with certain plays and gets too unwieldy when it comes to hero ball.

On offense, Wade and Allen will pick their spots and continue moving around to see what defenses give (or not give) them. Do not expect to see Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole on the floor at the same time in this series. The Pacers simply bring too much heft and size that it will turn both of them into a liability on both ends of the floor.
 
#3 What do the Pacers need to rediscover?

Mental fortitude. Just when the Pacers seemed to get their act together after three straight victories against Washington, they dropped a game five stink-bomb in what was supposed to be an easy closeout victory at home. This time, thee Pacers have no margin of error.

The reason why Indiana has been so vulnerable during the postseason is because once their brittle, isolation-heavy offense is exposed, the defense also seems to take a backseat. The Pacers have to remember that they have an all-world rim protector in Hibbert and a lockdown wing defender in George.

The Pacers also cannot afford to waste the home-court advantage they worked all season for. Nothing less than a 2-0 start to the series will be acceptable if they have serious Finals aspirations. They are currently 3-4 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and have not yet truly fed off the crowd in any of their home wins so far.



#4 Will Dwyane Wade outplay Lance Stephenson?

Stephenson doused some kerosene into the firewood by calling out Wade. The numbers suggest that Stephenson will still have his hands full. Wade has averaged 17.9 points on an even 50 percent shooting through the first two rounds. His array of Euro-steps, shoulder-fakes, stutter steps will keep Stephenson on his toes, wary of whether Miami’s shooting guard decides to elevate for a midrange jumper or to contort past him for an acrobatic finish.

By no means is Stephenson all talk. The vocal guard has put up 13.5 points and 7.4 rebounds through 13 playoff games on 37.5 percent three-point shooting. Wade will also have his share of headaches keeping up with Stephenson, a bona fide triple threat player who can create for himself or for his teammates.

The problem is when Stephenson’s game is not the one doing the talking but his voice box. He nearly cost his team a game in the regular season when he got ejected for biting on Wade’s smirk bait and retaliated by taunting back. If the Pacers want to gain the edge on this matchup, they will need Stephenson to accept his role on the team and play with fire but not be consumed by it.

#5 Who is bound for a breakout series?

West has been the stabilizing factor for the Pacers. His high post game forces Miami to play honest single coverage on Hibbert. He is mobile enough to stay in front of James for certain stretches and provides enough muscle to relegate Bosh into a jump shooter. While West’s playoff numbers won’t blow anyone out of the water (14.6 points and 6.5 rebounds), he has been reliable as a secondary pick-and-roll option and is a legitimate go-to option when the shot clock is running down.

More importantly, West is also a solid facilitator at his position, finding the open man for 4.4 assists per game. Indiana has the tendency to let the offense stagnate, a no-no against the Heat. When the defense cranks up several notches higher, the Pacers must make sure that the ball keeps on moving and West must make sure that the only thing swinging around is the ball, not his elbows or any extra-curricular activity of that sort.

Over the past week, Indiana showed flashes of brilliance that reminded people why they were a nightmare on defense. Their size will not go away and Pacers head coach Frank Vogel will not have to resort to playing Chris Copeland extended minutes this time around.

However, the Pacers will have to deal once more with a lackluster bench that cannot sustain whatever production the starting unit gives them. Miami has a deeper unit, more dynamic rotations, and the best player on their side. The third time won’t be a charm for Indiana.

Prediction: Heat in 6


- AMD, GMA News