2014 NBA Western Conference Finals preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs

#1 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 defeated #8 Dallas Mavericks in seven games and #5 Portland Trail Blazers in five games
#2 Oklahoma City Thunder 59-23 defeated #7 Memphis Grizzlies in seven games and #3 Los Angeles Clippers in six games

Season series: Thunder 4-0

November 27: Spurs 88-94 @Thunder
December 21: Thunder 113-100 @Spurs
January 22: Thunder 111-105 @Spurs
April 3: Spurs 94-106 @Thunder

When the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder met on the same stage two seasons ago, there were a lot of similarities pointed out between them. They boasted of highly intelligent, forward thinking front offices and bannered unselfish superstars in Tim Duncan and Kevin Durant. The Spurs though had and still have a winning formula, while the Thunder are trying to find the right mix of ingredients.

The Spurs have perfected the challenge of continuity in spite of roster overhauls, retirements, and devastating injuries. The Thunder had their first taste of adversity when they lost Russell Westbrook in last year’s playoffs. Now they will have to contend without Serge Ibaka, who has been ruled out for the postseason with a Grade 2 strain of the left plantaris in his calf after colliding with Chris Paul in game six of the previous round.

Durant and Westbrook have averaged 58 points through the first two rounds of the postseason. All eyes will be on them as they look to send a veteran and seemingly ageless group of Spurs to pasture for the second time in three years.

#1 How much impact will Serge Ibaka’s absence have?

Let us get the obvious issue out of the way. The Thunder will miss a top-25 caliber player. They will feel the loss of an interior defensive anchor who not only rejected an average of 2.2 blocks in the postseason but who also forces several altered shots and disrupted alley-oop lobs every game. The Spurs though won’t put much weight on the lobs Ibaka prevented since they only had one alley-oop connection the entire 2013-2014 season. Let that tidbit sink in.

Here is a glaring statistical drop-off that resonates heavily on Ibaka. The Spurs shot a shade under 65 percent in the restricted area against all 28 other teams during the regular season. Against the Thunder? That rate drops down to a notch above 50 percent.

The Thunder will miss Serge Ibaka’s offense just as much as his defense because they will need a reliable third option who can deflect some of the attention away from Durant and Westbrook. The Spurs eventually contained the Dallas Mavericks and Portland Trail Blazers, two teams that only had two stars doing the heavy lifting on offense. Without Ibaka, the Thunder cannot afford to fall into the same trap and they will need guys like Reggie Jackson to shoulder the scoring load.

#2 Do both teams have any lineup alterations prepared?

At first glance, shifting Durant to the four seems like the Thunder’s panacea. Such a move would allow him to play with Caron Butler at small forward, who was underutilized in the previous round against the Clippers.

However, this puts Durant at a severe disadvantage on the defensive end, as he’ll have to take on the greatest power forward of all time in Duncan, who will bully him on the low block. Even if Durant does switch, he will receive punishment from either Tiago Splitter or Boris Diaw when crashing the boards. It’s a lose-lose scenario on Durant’s end and it could trigger a poor shooting performance on his part from all the battering.

Staying at his familiar small forward role would be more appealing for Durant because it would preserve his offensive firepower. Nick Collison and Steven Adams should be the ones to handle the brunt of the glass work. On defense, Durant can afford to sag off Kawhi Leonard, who isn’t going to suck the Slim Reaper into any isolation plays.

Conversely, expect Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich not to be baited into playing small ball. The Grizzlies and Clippers packed the paint and forced Durant to beat them from outside. Now without the threat of Ibaka clamoring for offensive boards, the Spurs can dominate the glass with two traditional bigs in the game at all times.



#3 What is the status of Tony Parker’s hamstring?

There is a lot hinging on the health of Tony Parker because so much of his movement and penetration predicates the success of the Spurs offense. Make no mistake, this Spurs juggernaut does not dovetail with Parker on the bench. Rather, Parker elevates this team’s offense from above average to elite. Working the pick-and-roll with Duncan is second nature to Parker and he can also see where the shooters are stationed outside as he begins his curl to the basket.

If Parker is not fully equipped to burn the tracks, Manu Ginobili may have to absorb most of the minutes. Ginobili has clocked in an average of 25 minutes in 12 playoff games so far, but his production has been spot on, registering 13.9 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.3 assists.

#4 Who can slow down Russell Westbrook?

There is no better time to let the free-spirited guard run amok in a series, especially one where the Thunder are handicapped on offense. But not because Westbrook sees a hobbled Parker and a slower Patty Mills means that he has a free pass to the basket. The Spurs have Danny Green, arguably their second-best on and off-ball defender behind Leonard.

Green is more than a corner three assassin; he is maturing into a premier defender at an alarming rate. He fights through screens, defends with a hand to the face, and chases his defender off the three-point line, among other methods. Against the ultra-athletic Westbrook, Green will need to use his understanding of defensive spacing and where his help defender is going to come from. He was not yet this proficient when these two teams clashed in 2012. Green has come a long way since then.

If all else fails, Green can just leave a snake in Westbrook’s locker.



#5 Which of these two teams has a shakier offseason in store if they lose?

Oklahoma City’s future looks bleak if they fail to advance to the Finals for the second year in a row. It may be unfair but that is the expectation set on them: championship or bust. It is quite ironic that the Spurs have fewer question marks to address, even with three of their stars well into their 30s and on the final year of their contracts in 2015.

There won’t be any issues with the Thunder one-two punch; Durant and Westbrook are here to stay, especially with the league MVP coming to his sidekick’s defense recently. However, there should be a lot of personnel turnover down the line.

The Thunder will have to address if Kendrick Perkins should finally come off the books via amnesty, especially with Kiwi rookie Adams on the rise. The glaring hole at the shooting guard spot still looks beard-shaped. Most importantly, Thunder head coach Scott Brooks will also be on the hot seat and the outcome of this series could ultimately determine his fate.

What a narrative the Thunder have had to endure throughout the postseason. From the “Mr. Unreliable” headline to Durant’s timeless MVP speech, the Thunder have been the most intriguing reality show the past few weeks. The Spurs are about to pull the plug thanks to consistency and a full roster from top to bottom. Although the Thunder will never use Ibaka’s injury as a cop-out excuse, the repercussions of his absence will be felt from all corners.

Prediction: Spurs in 7



- AMD, GMA News