2014 NBA Finals preview: San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat

#1 San Antonio Spurs 62-20 defeated #8 Dallas Mavericks in seven games, #5 Portland Trail Blazers in five games, and #2 Oklahoma City Thunder in six games

#2 Miami Heat 54-28 defeated #7 Charlotte Bobcats in four games, #6 Brooklyn Nets in five games, and #1 Indiana Pacers in six games

Season Series: Tied 1-1
January 26: Spurs 101-113 @Heat
March 6: Heat 87-111 @Spurs



Take two.

Four Finals MVPs.

Seven potential Hall of Fame candidates.

Two bannered tacticians.

A new chapter in basketball history is about to be written

What will the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat do for an encore? The league reached its pinnacle when these powerhouses faced each other 12 months ago for the Larry O’Brien Trophy. It is only fitting that these two organizations measure each other’s mettle once more as the league prepares for its first Finals rematch since the Chicago Bulls defeated the Utah Jazz in 1997 and 1998. Last year, the storyline of the Finals revolved around legacies and longevity. The plot continues to develop around the same questions and the same main characters.

Once the Spurs and Heat take the floor, last year’s epic seven-game classic will be a distant memory. Though the scars of Ray Allen’s game six equalizer lingers on, Tim Duncan and Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich have never been more locked in to win a fifth title together. For LeBron James, the outcome of this year’s Finals could either catapult him into the pantheon of all-time greats or humble him into another turbulent offseason of uncertainty and criticism.

Make no mistake, underneath the mutual respect emanating from both squads is a rivalry stemming from the way these two teams are constructed. One of substance, the other of style. The Spurs, a model of stability and selflessness; the Heat, a blueprint of evolution and entertainment. Both teams are ready to unleash their entire war chest of firepower until the bitter end.

#1 Which Dwyane Wade will show up?

Due to a balky knee, Wade only produced two vintage performances in last year’s Finals, during game four (32 points, six steals) and game seven (23 points, 10 rebounds). That was one of many factors that prompted the Heat to allow Wade to undergo a season-long maintenance program. So far, it has paid off dividends. With Wade avoiding the wear and tear of back-to-back nights, he has been a different animal in the playoffs. Through 15 postseason games, Miami’s co-captain has dismantled the opposition to the tune of 18.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 4.3 assists.

The layer of intrigue comes from the dynamic of how Wade will mesh with James. While this seems like a topic that has been put to rest long ago, the Heat always has this issue resurface when playing against the Spurs. According to ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh, the James-Wade duo is a minus-57 in 230 minutes together, while they are plus-57 in the 71 minutes when James is the only man on the floor during the Finals. This problem was severely emphasized because the Spurs were more than willing to send another man out to defend James and to watch Wade settle for unwieldy 20-footers.

With Wade as close to 100 percent as he could possibly be, he will be ready to provide the requisite off-ball offense that made the Heat so potent as the league’s most efficient scoring team this postseason with a 113.7 OffRtg despite playing the slowest pace. Look for Wade to punish the likes of Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard in the post to force the Spurs defense to realign.

#2 Can the Spurs risk fielding a small-ball lineup against the Heat?

Ever since the Heat tinkered with a lineup wrinkle of going small, opposing teams have had the dilemma of sticking with their original game plan or fighting fire with fire to negate the Heat’s speed on transition. There are two caveats suggesting that going small will not be to the Spurs’ best interests.

First, Tiago Splitter has been an unheralded defensive presence, limiting Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Serge Ibaka’s production. It only makes sense that Splitter should be matched up against Chris Bosh, who has been feast or famine this playoffs. Having a seven-footer guarding Miami’s big has a twofold purpose: it hinders Bosh from becoming a pick-and-roll threat and it gives James second thoughts from attacking the basket at will.

Second, Tony Parker is nursing an ankle injury, the severity of which is not fully known. According to NBA.com, Parker is leading the postseason with 195 drives to the basket. These drives are created off a steady diet of picks from Duncan and Splitter, some of which Parker veers away from in an attempt to create misdirection and throw a wrench into Miami’s swarming trap defense. Parker may be cleared to play, but it is be difficult to gauge if he can punish Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole with the same effectiveness as last year. Going bigger and slower seems to be the safer approach for the Spurs to preserve Parker’s stamina down the stretch.
 

 

#3 Is reverting back to the 2-2-1-1-1 format going to swing the series to either side?

The Spurs (9-1) and Heat (8-0) boast excellent home records this postseason. The 2-3-2 series brought good tidings for the Heat as the favorite; had they been the underdog, it would have placed them in a tenuous position. Despite having an unblemished mark at American Airlines Arena, Miami would have been highly unlikely to win three consecutive games to turn the tide in this series. Even if the Heat already showed they can pull off the same feat in 2006 and 2012, it would be unfathomable to picture the Spurs repeatedly failing to make the necessary adjustments.

The revamped scheduling makes game five extremely pivotal. The Spurs have been utterly dominant over the past month at AT&T Center, where a 7-0 home record in May is underscored by a winning margin of 17 or more in every single game. It will be a must-win for San Antonio because the two extra trips for games six and seven could take their toll on the weary Spurs, who have already played a total of 18 postseason matches and counting.

#4 How does Miami keep Duncan in check?

Duncan turned back the clock in the two regular season meetings against the Heat, averaging 23 points and seven rebounds. It was clear that Bosh and Chris Andersen have difficulties keeping Duncan out of the paint because they had to keep a watchful eye on Parker’s constant action towards the basket. Aside from that, there were also concerns about spacing out far enough to contest the shooter from the corner three spot, where San Antonio has been a blistering 45.5 percent through the first three rounds.

Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra will have to dig deep and demand quality minutes from Udonis Haslem. However, Duncan is no Roy Hibbert. His array of post moves and footwork mastery will expose Haslem’s height disadvantage and will force the Heat to scramble defensively. Do they double Duncan at the expense of leaving shooters open? Miami is in an unenviable pick your poison conundrum and will have to continually push Duncan out of the paint to prevent him from abusing the Heat’s scarce frontcourt.

#5 How much will Danny Green and Boris Diaw bring to the table?

Green transformed into a human nuclear bomb through the first five games of last year’s Finals, nearly torpedoing the Heat with successive treys. Green was such a revelation that he was a dark horse candidate for Finals MVP had the Spurs won the series. He was not only a long-range threat, but also a keen rebounder and a decent defender on both James and Wade. This season, Green has been up and down, entering burst fire mode in home games but heaving bricks in road games. Now under heavy surveillance by scouts, Green will need to stay in constant motion to be an effective cog in the Spurs’ machine.

Diaw’s role will be trickier. He may see less minutes on the floor simply because Splitter is a better fit in this matchup, but in the minutes when Diaw gets to spell either Splitter or Duncan, he will be expected to be the Spurs’ secondary ballhandler. Diaw is by no means athletic, but he is very crafty and he knows how to use creases to find his teammates for open baskets. This means Miami has to assign James on either Diaw, who can wear James down in the post repeatedly, or on Parker, who will force James to chase him all throughout the game.
 

 

#6 Which third option will be more critical to his team, Manu Ginobili or Chris Bosh?

Ginobili had a forgettable seven-game slog and if not for game five (24 points, 10 assists), murmurs of his retirement would have been more amplified. The Spurs’ best reserve was uncharacteristically sloppy handling the ball, coughing up a total of 12 turnovers in the games six and seven. No player is looking to redeem himself more than Ginobili, who is out to prove that he still has enough gas left in the tank before riding off into the proverbial sunset.

The Spurs may not recognize Bosh’s game when the Heat have the ball. Bosh did not convert a single three-point shot when the two teams faced each other in last year’s Finals. So far, Bosh has been living outside the arc, shooting at a 41 percent clip on 4.1 attempts this postseason. As mentioned earlier, Splitter could spend ample time guarding Bosh. The margin of error is very slim on Bosh because so much of Miami’s offense hinges on whether his shots are falling or not. Because of the Spurs’ bench depth, Ginobili can afford to have an off game or two. Unless Rashard Lewis has a throwback game of his own, Bosh does not have the same luxury.

#7 Will the outcome of this series have a significant impact on the 2014 offseason?

As Ben Golliver of Sports Illustrated points out, Father Time and free agency are looming trending topics hanging in the balance, depending on the outcome of the series. If the Heat successfully defend their title anew, then James, Wade, and Bosh may re-up their contracts for another season for at least one more title run together. Allen and Shane Battier may consider retiring unless the urge to play for another ring is too tempting a bait to resist. Chalmers will listen to offers from other teams but could ultimately decide to stay.

If the Spurs get their much-awaited revenge, the possibility of Popovich, Duncan, and Ginobili simultaneously hanging it up becomes the perfect storybook ending. Parker then takes over as the de facto number one option while Leonard becomes his sidekick. The Spurs have nothing left to prove, having already established themselves as proven winners for the better part of two decades. No other franchise has sustained similar success on any of the four professional major sports in America.

Sequels usually fall short of expectations when compared to the original billing. That won’t be the case when these two teams renew acquaintances. The Spurs have had a very promising season, seeing gradual upticks in the performance of Leonard, Splitter, and Mills. Their ball movement has been captivating theater that has kept everyone glued to their seats. But with Wade’s playoff resurrection, the Heat arguably have the best and second-best player on the floor when the series goes underway. That should be enough for the Heat to prevail and establish its own dynasty in South Beach.

Prediction: Heat in 7