Who'll make it? World Cup scenarios before group finales

BELO HORIZONTE - With the final round of games about to start in the World Cup groups, there is plenty to play for and a plethora of permutations for many of the 32 teams competing for glory in Brazil.


THE RULES:

According to FIFA regulations, the ranking of teams in each group is based, in this order, on:

- Points in all group matches, with three points awarded for a win, one point for a draw and none for a loss.

- Goal difference in all group matches.

- Goals scored in all group matches.

- Points in matches between tied teams.

- Goal difference in matches between tied teams.

- Goals scored in matches between tied teams.

- Drawing of lots.


Here are the main possibilities based on the latest standings.

 
 

GROUP A

Qualified: No one

Eliminated: Cameroon

Still at stake: Brazil and Mexico are joint top of the group on four points. They will both qualify if they beat Cameroon and Croatia respectively on Monday (Tuesday, PHL time).

Brazil is currently first with a superior goal difference but only one more than Mexico, so both Latin American sides will be aspiring to get the top spot, which would reward them with a game against the runners-up of Group B.

If Brazil draws or loses to Cameroon, then Croatia, currently on three points, could still win the group if they beat Mexico. A Croatia-Mexico draw, and Brazil defeat, would see the hosts eliminated on goal difference to Croatia.


GROUP B

Qualified: Netherlands, Chile

Eliminated: Australia, Spain

Still at stake: Having secured maximum points in their first two games, the Netherlands and Chile play each other on Monday (Tuesday, PHL time) looking for a victory they hope will enable them to avoid facing Brazil in the next round, assuming the hosts top Group A.

A draw would be enough to give the high-scoring Dutch top spot due to a goal difference of +5 versus Chile's +4.

Australia and Spain, also meeting on Monday (Tuesday, PHL time), are battling for pride alone. The 2010 champions need to win in order to avoid the ignominy of bottom spot due to Australia's superior goal difference.

 
 

 
 

GROUP C:

Qualified: Colombia

Eliminated: No one

Still at stake: Colombia is on top of Group C with six points from two wins, but needs at least a draw against Japan on Tuesday (Wednesday, PHL time) to ensure top spot and the reward of a knockout game against the runners up of Group D.

The Ivory Coast, on three points, would qualify with a win over Greece in its remaining game on the same day.

Greece, which has one point from two games could reach the last 16 if they beat Ivory Coast to reach four points and Japan - also currently on one point - draw or lose to Colombia.

If Japan and Greece both win, then the second position would depend on goal difference, with Greece needing to catch a two-goal deficit to Japan. If they ended level on goal difference, it would go down to goals scored over the three group games.


GROUP D

Qualified: Costa Rica

Eliminated: England

Still at stake: Italy will qualify for the next round with a win against Uruguay in their game on Tuesday (Wednesday, PHL time) or a draw thanks to a superior goal difference. Uruguay must win to join Costa Rica, which is guaranteed passage with two wins out of two.

Should Costa Rica lose to England in their match on Tuesday (Wednesday, PHL time), and Italy or Uruguay win, the top two teams would finish on six points and the group winner would be decided on goal difference. Costa Rica currently has a +3 goal difference to Italy's 0.

England, bottom on zero points, need a win to have any chance of catching Uruguay or Italy and avoiding the humiliation of last spot. But even that would be impossible if Uruguay and Italy draw.


GROUP E

Qualified: No one

Eliminated: No one

Still at stake: With a maximum six points and an enviable goal difference of +6, France looks assured of qualification from Group E but do not yet have mathematical certainty.

It would take a heavy Ecuador defeat of 'Les Bleus' and a big win from Switzerland over Honduras on Wednesday (Thursday, PHL time) to cause that unlikely scenario. Should France win or draw against Ecuador, they would top the group and face the runners-up of Group F in the knockout stage.

Though bottom on zero points, Honduras can still qualify if they beat Switzerland and Ecuador loses, though goal difference would be the deciding factor. Honduras would have to hope the games produce a five-goal swing between themselves and Ecuador, who like the Swiss, currently have three points.

The Swiss will be hoping that France beats Ecuador, which would mean a draw or win against Honduras, to promote them to second in the group.
 

 
 

GROUP F:

Qualified: Argentina

Eliminated: Bosnia

Still at stake: Nigeria and Iran are battling for the second qualifying berth in Group F, with Nigeria on four points and Iran one.

To have any chance, Iran has to beat Bosnia, which is already out on zero points, and hope that Argentina, top on six points, defeat Nigeria.

A 1-0 win for Iran and 1-0 defeat for Nigeria would leave them level on both points and goal difference. In that rare scenario, the rules state the teams must be separated by goals scored in all matches, then points between them and goals between them. But given that Iran and Nigeria have both scored one goal each in the group, and they drew 0-0 against each other, that would not separate them so there would have to be a drawing of lots.


GROUP G:

Qualified: No one

Eliminated: No one

Still at stake: With Germany and the United States on four points, and Ghana and Portugal on one, there are a lot of possibilities in Group G.

Germany and the United States play each other on Thursday (Friday, PHL time), with a draw ensuring passage for both and top spot for Germany on goal difference. A win for either would open the door for Ghana and Portugal to slip into second place.

If Germany wins, Portugal would need to beat Ghana and hope they can overturn a goal difference deficit of five with the United States. If the United States win, Portugal would have to win and close a deficit of eight goals with Germany to pip them.

Ghana has a better goal difference than Portugal, -1 to -4, so if they beat Portugal and the United States lose, then Ghana would go through provided they surpassed the goal difference deficit of two between them and the United States.

If Ghana won 1-0 and the United States lost 1-0, however, both would be on four points each with the same goal difference. In that case, the United States would qualify because they beat Ghana in their group game earlier.


GROUP H:

Qualified: Belgium

Eliminated: No one

Still at stake: With group favorites Belgium already qualified on a maximum six points from two games, Algeria is in pole position for the second berth after securing three points from a win against South Korea.

A win for Algeria against Russia on Thursday (Friday, PHL time) would ensure that they go through to the last sixteen. If they draw, however, Russia is eliminated, but South Korea could sneak into second place if they win heavily against Belgium.

If Algeria wins and Belgium loses, Algeria will top the group on goal difference.

If both Russia and South Korea win, they would move to four points each from one now, and second place will be decided on goal difference between the two of them.

Russia has a one goal advantage right now.

If Russia beats Algeria and South Korea draws or loses against Belgium, Russia would take second spot on four points.

If South Korea are to finish second, they would need to beat Belgium by a healthy margin and, at the same time, hope Algeria and Russia draw, or Russia beats Algeria but by a narrow margin. - Reuters