NCR quarantine status can be eased if COVID-19 cases drop to 2k daily —OCTA

Quarantine protocols in Metro Manila and nearby provinces can be eased once the number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) goes down to 2,000 a day, the OCTA Research Group said Wednesday.

OCTA’s Professor Ranjit Rye and Dr. Guido David made the observation ahead of the expected announcement of COVID-19 quarantine classification of the area next month by President Rodrigo Duterte tonight.

NCR and adjacent provinces Bulacan, Laguna, Rizal and Cavite are under modified Enhanced Community Quarantine (MECQ) from April 12 until April 30.

Under MECQ, non-essential trips are prohibited, and also non-essential businesses and services are partially shut down. 

“Based on the data, [threshold is an average of] 2,000 COVID-19 cases daily in NCR. Anything [above that number] ma-o-overwhelm ang ating hospital system,” Rye said during the Laging Handa briefing.

(Any new tally of COVID-19 cases above the 2,000 in a day in NCR will overwhelm our hospitals.)

“Hindi pa puede mag-transition sa GCQ as we speak kasi the trend can be reversed. Puno pa ang mga ospital" (We can’t transition now because the trend can be reversed. Hospitals are still full), Rye added.

Moreover, he said, "It will take time to bring down the number of cases, that is why we want an additional week [of MECQ].” 

Under General Community Quarantine (GCQ) classification, leisurely trips, indoor dining, and non-essential businesses and services are allowed.

On the other hand, Guido said that the average daily number of COVID-19 cases in NCR is still at 3,500, although this figure is already significantly lower than the previous 5,500 before tighter quarantine protocols were implemented.

“Our daily number of new COVID-19 cases is at 9,000; 8,000 nationwide…mataas pa rin (still high), although there's big improvement in NCR. We hope to see less than 3,000 new COVID-19 cases in two weeks, down to 2,000 in four weeks,” Guido pointed out.

“This is a big challenge and getting back our [COVID-19] numbers in January [this year] will not happen overnight,” Guido added.

The Philippines has 71,675 active COVID-19 cases. Of this number, 7,204 new COVID-19 cases were recorded on April 27.  —LBG, GMA News