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OCTA: NCR now at 'high risk' as positivity rate rises to 28%

The COVID-19 reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) has climbed to 4.05, the highest since April 1, 2020, while the positivity rate jumped to 28%, according to the OCTA Research group on Saturday.

Reproduction rate refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that at least 2,530 new cases were reported in the NCR on New Year’s Day, the highest in almost three months, or since October 10, 2021. 

From December 26, 2021, to January 1, 2022, the seven-day average of new COVID-19 cases increased by 969% (from 90 to 962), David said.

“Lower testing output will likely lead to a dip in the numbers in the NCR for January 2 to 3 (to less than 2,000),” he said.

'High risk'

In OCTA’s latest update, the daily positivity rate in the NCR has increased to 28.03%, up from 21% previously.

“With the increase in positivity rate, NCR is now classified as high risk,” David said in a separate tweet.


David said the seven-day average in the positivity rate increased to 12.94% from 1.15% last week.

“Although there is an expected decrease in testing due to holidays, this is offset by the increase in positivity rate, which was at 21% just a day prior,” he said.

According to David, the number of COVID-19 cases would remain in the same range as on January 1, with 2,500 to 3,000 new cases in the NCR and 3,500 to 4,000 cases nationwide.

Meanwhile, the government's COVID-19 task force has placed the NCR under Alert Level 3 from January 3 to 15, 2022 following the sharp increase in new COVID-19 infections in the country.

“Hopefully, the move to Alert Level 3 will help curb transmissions. As always, we hope everyone stays safe and healthy,” David said.

David earlier reported that Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, and Rizal were at moderate risk.

The Philippines on Saturday recorded 3,617 new COVID-19 infections at the start of the New Year. — VBL, GMA News