Quezon City now at ‘very low risk’ —OCTA

Quezon City is now at “very low risk” for COVID-19 with an average of 25 new cases per day over the past week, according to independent monitoring group OCTA Research on Thursday.

In a tweet, OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said the city has been averaging 25 new COVID-19 cases per day from March 10 to 16.

“This is equivalent to an ADAR (average daily attack rate) of just 0.79 per 100,000 people per day, putting Quezon City in the very low risk category,” David said.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

Meanwhile, David said the reproduction number in Quezon City has been steady at 0.23 while the one week growth rate was -22%.

The reproduction number refers to the number of people infected by one case. A reproduction number below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.

“On average, the number of new cases in Quezon City has been around 16% of NCR (National Capital Region) numbers. This projects to a 7-day average of around 154 cases in the NCR,” David said.

“This would mean that NCR remains at low risk although it should be very close to moving to very low risk once the ADAR decreases below 1 (the ADAR in the NCR is currently at 1.09),” he added.

The local government of Quezon City recorded 244 active cases, while 258,851 individuals have recovered from the viral disease as of Wednesday, March 16. — Richa Noriega/BM, GMA News