Average new COVID-19 cases in NCR up 19% —OCTA

Daily average COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) increased by 19% in the past seven days although the region remains "low risk," OCTA Research said Friday.

In its latest report, the independent monitoring group said cases during the May 13 to 19 period went up to 71 from 59 recording during the May 6 to 12 period.

NCR's reproduction number, which refers to the number of people infected by one case, also increased to 0.90, which is considered "moderate," from 0.76, which is considered low.

A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slow.

On the other hand, the positivity rate —referring to the ratio of people testing positive over the total number of tests conducted — remained at 1.2% over an average of 11,476 tests per day, while hospital care utilization rate remained at 22% in NCR.

The one-week average daily attack rate (ADAR) likewise increased from 0.42 to 0.50 "but remained very low (less than 1)," OCTA said.

"Overall, NCR remained at LOW RISK," OCTA said.

Too early

But Health Secretary Francisco Duque III said it might be too early to determine if the reported increase in coronavirus infections would cause a significant impact on the public health and security status in Metro Manila.

Interviewed on Super Radyo dzBB, Duque explained that the Health Department should monitor the country’s two-week growth and average daily attack rate per hundred thousand population first to determine if there’s a need to put NCR into a higher alert level.

"Mag-aantay pa tayo hanggang makita natin yung risk classification ay tataas kasi nasa low-risk classification pa rin tayo," Duque said.

(We still need to wait until we see if there is an increase in the risk classification because right now, we’re still in the low-risk classification.)

"Kapag ito ay nag-moderate risk, ibig sabihin ay either high-risk na yung ating two-week growth rate or parehong moderate rate risk ‘yung two-week growth rate at ating average daily attack rate per hundred thousand population. Kumbaga ‘yan ‘yung gauge natin kung meron bang basis for an escalation to Alert Level 2," he said.

(If it is heightened into moderate risk, that means our two-week growth rate is at high-risk or both our two-week growth rate and average daily at per hundred thousand population. Those are our bases to gauge if there’s a need to escalate our Alert Level into 2.)

"Sa ngayon wala pa at lalong di pa naapektuhan yung ating healthcare utilization rate na as of Wednesday, nasa less than 20 percent.’ ‘Yung ating non-ICU bed capacity, 17% (samantalang) nasa 16% yung ICU high capacity. Mababa pa ito," he added.

(As of now, we’re still not seeing its effect, especially in our healthcare utilization rate. As of Wednesday, we’re still at less than 20 percent. For our ICU bed capacity, we’re at 17 percent while for ICU high-capacity we’re at 16 percent. It is still low.)

Alert Level 1

The NCR is among the areas currently under Alert Level 1, the least restrictive among COVID-19 alert levels.

The Philippines conducted its national and local elections on May 9 amid fears that the throngs of people going to voting precincts could lead to another surge in COVID-19 cases.

The government recently announced that it has detected 17 cases of Omicron subvariant BA.2.12.1, two of them in the NCR. The subvariant is said to be 27% more transmissible than BA.2, the dominant Omicron subvariant in the Philippines and the rest of the world.

On Thursday, the Department of Health said a fresh COVID-19 surge is possible if a new immune-escaping variant of the coronavirus enters the country and the immunity of the vaccinated people wanes.

The government has been actively calling on citizens to get vaccinated against COVID-19, saying the country has enough vaccine supply.

Recently, the government rolled out second booster shot for healthcare workers and senior citizens to give them more protection against the virus.

The DOH started giving second booster doses to immunocompromised adults in April. —KBK/RSJ, GMA News