OCTA sees 'slow uptick' in NCR COVID-19 cases

A slow uptick in COVID-19 infections was observed in the National Capital Region (NCR), as indicated in the increases in the reproduction number and positivity rate, independent monitoring group OCTA Research said Sunday.

In a tweet, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said that NCR’s seven-day COVID-19 positivity rate went up from 12.1% on September 2, to 13.3% on September 9.

NCR Reproduction number increased to 1.11 from 0.93. Positivity rate increased to 13.3% from 12.1%. NCR with a slow uptick in Covid cases. This is not unexpected given the increased mobility. The elderly & those with comorbidities are advised to take precautions. #COVID19 @dzbb pic.twitter.com/TP6VtXVWZS

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) September 11, 2022

Positivity rate refers to the number of people found positive for COVID-19 against the total number of individuals tested.

NCR’s reproduction number or the number of people infected by one case, also climbed from 0.93 on August 31 to 1.11 on September 7.

“The reproduction number has increased to greater than 1, which means infections are increasing,” David said.

The one-week growth rate in the region, recorded from September 3 to 10, was at 6%. This was a big jump from the -17% recorded from August 27 to September 3.

“NCR is having a slow uptick in COVID cases.  [But this is expected] given the increased mobility of the population,” David said.

Despite this, NCR’s average daily attack rate (ADAR) was still considered “low” at 5.58 per 100,000 population, even if it slightly increased as well.

ADAR pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

COVID-19 hospital bed and intensive care unit occupancies in NCR also both remained “low” at 34.5% and 28.9%, respectively.

David thus reminded the vulnerable sector, particularly senior citizens and those with comorbidities, to take extra precautions against the coronavirus disease.

On Saturday, the Philippines logged 3,165 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the active caseload to 26,074. —LBG, GMA News