Pagasa: Forecasting deviations still within international standards

MANILA , Philippines - The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) on Tuesday admitted it may have committed errors in its weather forecasts. Pagasa chief Prisco Nilo was, however, quick to add that deviations of a typhoon's movement from Pagasa's forecasted location remains within the international standard, noting that weather forecasting is not an exact science. In an interview with radio dzBB's Mike Enriquez, Nilo said the international forecast error, in the United States for example, ranges from 150 kilometers to 200 kilometers. He said Pagasa's average forecast error in past years is 180 kilometers. "Ganun talaga ang forecasting, hindi eksakto, kahit sa America , kahit saang bansa ganun po yun (That is forecasting, it is not exact, even in American and other countries)," Nilo said. "Recognizing na meron tayong forecast error na ganun binibigyan ng allowance ang mga signal na nire-raise kasi alam naman natin na hindi 100 percent yung forecast, ganun talaga yung forecast, binibigyan ng allowance by that much (Recognizing the forecast error that we might have, we give allowance when we raise storm signal warnings because we know that we cannot be 100 percent sure with forecasting)," he added. On Monday, shipping company Sulpicio Lines Inc sued Pagasa for alleged "inaccurate" weather reports which led to the capsizing of the MV Princess of the Stars off Romblon at the height of Typhoon "Frank." Sulpicio sought P2.5 million in moral damages; P1 million for "loss of goodwill," P500,000 for exemplary damages; P150,000 for attorney's fee and litigation expenses; and P500,000 for moral damages done to vice president Edgar Go. In the face of the P4.4-million damage suit filed by Sulpicio Lines over the capsizing of MV Princess of the Stars, Nilo said Pagasa will not be distracted by it. "Kami sa Pagasa, ayaw po naming magpadistract sa ganung development (We, in Pagasa, refuse to be distracted by this development)," Nilo said. He said Pagasa's services will continue unhampered even as it prepares to defend itself in court. "Makaaasa kayo na kami dito sa Pagasa ay tuluy-tuloy at buong husay at buong pusong maglilingkod para sa kaligtasan ng ating mga kababayan. Meron nang kasong nakasampa sa korte at ang magagawa namin ay paghandaan ito. Documented naman lahat ng mga ginawa namin, bulletins at iba pa at yun ay ilalahad sa korte at ipaliliwanag (We assure you that we will continue to serve with all our abilities and all our hearts for the safety of our people. A case had been filed in court and we are preparing for it. All our actions are documented, bulletins and others and we will present and explain these to court)," he added. Nilo said the agency will remain on its toes as they expect 20 to 22 typhoons to hit the country this year, noting that typhoon "Frank" is only the sixth weather disturbance to enter the Philippine area of responsibility this year. "Nasa kalagitnaan pa lang tayo ng taon (It is only the middle of the year)," Nilo said. - Amita Legaspi, GMANews.TV