PAGASA: El Niño finally weakening, cyclone possible in May

After causing dry spells and droughts in past months, the El Niño weather phenomenon is finally starting to weaken, with at least one cyclone likely to pass through the country in May. But the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said the rainy season may still be slightly delayed. "The current El Niño is likely to continue to weaken towards the neutral condition. Likewise, the onset of the rainy season associated with the southwest monsoon is expected to be slightly delayed," PAGASA said in a May 7 advisory posted on its website Tuesday. It said rainfall conditions in May are expected to be below normal over northern Luzon, most areas of Visayas and most portions of Mindanao. However, near to above normal rainfall may be expected over Central and Southern Luzon. "Weather systems likely to affect the country for May include the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), low pressure area, and one tropical cyclone," it said. Still, PAGASA added air temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal in most parts of the country. PAGASA said the moderate El Niño over the equatorial Pacific that started in June 2009 weakened during the second half of April but was still within the weak El Niño threshold. "Overall, the tropical Pacific is cooling gradually and the return to neutral conditions may be expected this June 2010," it said. In April, PAGASA noted the prevalence of the tail-end of the cold front and the passage of easterly wave brought scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms over most parts of Luzon and Mindanao. On the other hand, the ridge of a high-pressure area (HPA) resulted in below-normal rainfall conditions in most areas of Visayas, southern Luzon and northern and central Mindanao. It also caused above-normal temperatures in most areas of the country and brought warm and humid weather. "Highest temperature for the month of April was recorded over Tuguegarao City (39.7 degrees Celsius), while in Quezon City, Metro Manila, the maximum reached 37.3 degrees. However, these did not surpass the highest temperature on record. No tropical cyclone has developed or entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility," it said. Rainfall assessment for of April was near to above normal conditions over most areas of Northern Luzon including Palawan. This eased out the dry spell and drought conditions experienced during the previous months over the Cordillera Administrative Region, Region I, Region II and Central Luzon, PAGASA said. But it added below to way-below normal conditions were observed over Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northern and Central Mindanao. Areas that experienced dry spells in April included Cebu, Negros Oriental, Leyte and Samar provinces, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Davao del Norte, Surigao del Norte and Lanao del Sur. Droughts were observed over the provinces of Rizal, Aklan, Antique, Guimaras, Iloilo and Negros Occidental having five consecutive months from December to April of below to way below normal rainfall. "Impact assessment in agriculture due to crop damage was estimated at P12 billion as per the National Disaster Coordinating Council (NDCC) report dated April 29, 2010," it said. Average temperature ranges for April included 23 to 37 degrees over the lowlands of Luzon, 16 to 27 degrees for the mountainous areas of Luzon, 24 to 34 degrees for Visayas, 23 to 34 degrees over the lowlands of Mindanao, and 18 to 32 degrees over the mountainous areas of Mindanao. —LBG/RSJ, GMANews.TV