SWS poll: Independents, GO bets thrash TU 9-3

At least nine "non-administration" senatorial bets and three administration candidates stand a chance of landing in the Magic 12 in the upcoming elections, survey firm Social Weather Stations (SWS) said Wednesday. In its survey conducted from February 24 to 27, SWS said the 9-3 count was based on a survey using the names of all 80 people who filed their candidacies. The SWS survey frontrunner is Francis Pangilinan (Liberal Party), chosen by 56% of registered voters. He is an independent candidate adopted by the Genuine Opposition (GO), although his ties with the coalition have become unclear. "The survey points to at least an 8-4, and at most a 10-2, score in favor of non-TU candidates as of the end of February. The term 'non-administration' includes two, Pangilinan and Honasan, who are not counted within GO," SWS said in a statement released Wednesday. It added that, "The possibility of a 10-2 outcome as of February 2007 indicates a slight gain to the opposition over the last three months." Following Pangilinan are members of the Genuine Opposition, including Loren Legarda (Nationalist People's Coalition-GO), 54%; Manuel Villar Jr (Nacionalista Party), 52%; Alan Peter Cayetano (Nacionalista Party) and Panfilo Lacson (United Opposition), 43%; and Francis Escudero (Nationalist People's Coalition-GO), 37%. Next are Team Unity (TU) members Ralph Recto (Lakas-CMD), 37%; and Vicente Sotto III (Nationalist People's Coalition-TU), 31%. Recto's percentage is fractionally below Escudero's, SWS said. John Osmeña (United Opposition) and Benigno Aquino III (Liberal Party) follow at 30%; and Gregorio Honasan (Independent), 29%. Administration candidate Joker Arroyo (Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino) is 12th with 28%. Within "bounds of statistical error" are Edgardo Angara (Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino), 27%; and Aquilino Pimentel III (Partido ng Demokratikong Pilipino), 26%. SWS said a "significant distance away" are: Michael Defensor (TU), 12%; Sonia Roco (GO), 19%; Juan Miguel Zubiri (TU), 18%; Cesar Montano (TU), 15%; and Richard Gomez (Ind.), 15%; Vicente Magsaysay (TU), 14%; Anna Dominique "Nikki" Coseteng (GO), 13%; Prospero Pichay Jr (TU), 12%; Navy Lieutenant Senior Grade Antonio Trillanes IV (GO), 12%; and Teresa "Tessie" Aquino Oreta (TU), 12%; and Luis "Chavit" Singson (TU), 7%. "The result of the SWS November 2006 survey, using the present actual list of candidates, would have been 8-3 for the first 11 places, and a triple tie for 12th place among two candidates from the opposition and one from TU ... This translates to a potential outcome of either 8-4 or 9-3, in favor of the opposition," SWS said. Interestingly, Cayetano's namesake Joselito Cayetano (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) ranked 26th with 6% of the vote. He fared better than administration bet Jamalul Kiram (ranked 30-33, with 2%) as well as KBL partymates such as Oliver Lozano (ranked 34-58, with 1%) and Victor Wood (ranked 34-58, with 1%). Individually, the gainers from November 2006 to February 2007 were: Pangilinan, who moved from third to first; Villar, from seventh to third; Cayetano, from tied for fifth to tied-fourth; Escudero, from tenth to tied-sixth; Osmeña and Aquino, both from tied-twelfth to tied-ninth; Arroyo, from tied-twelfth to solo twelfth; and Roco, from seventeenth to sixteenth. SWS said Pangilinan's position in first place in February 2007 is not a complete surprise, since he had already been in first place in June 2006. Candidates who lost ground between November and February were: Legarda, who went from first to second; Lacson, from second to tied-fourth; Sotto, from fourth to eighth; Recto, from tied-fifth to tied-sixth; Honasan, from tied-eighth to eleventh; Pimentel, from tied-eighth to fourteenth; Angara, from eleventh to thirteenth; and Pichay, from eighteenth to twenty-second (due to the entry of fresh candidates Zubiri, Gomez, Montano, Magsaysay, and Coseteng). The November 2006 survey had three winning-circle candidates who did not join the Senate race: Joseph Victor "JV" Ejercito, tied for fourth; Korina Sanchez, tied for ninth; and Loi Estrada, tied for twelfth. "The high survey positions of Ejercito and Loi Estrada in November 2006 indicate that the electorate would have consented to having three members of the Estrada family sit in the Senate at the same time," SWS said. The SWS survey used face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults divided into random samples of 300 each in Metro Manila, the balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages). Area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2006 to obtain national estimates. The registered voters in the February 2007 survey were 88% of the sample. Of this number, about 14% did not choose any candidate at all. - GMANews.TV