Viral photo begs the question: Where do we run when The Big One hits?

(UPDATED 9:37 p.m.) An aerial photograph of the Pasig area has gone viral after it indicated how Metro Manila has become too crowded with houses and buildings, and how it lacked greenery and open spaces.

An urban planning expert and a study by the Asian Development Bank indicated that such level of urban congestion makes the National Capital Region vulnerable to such disasters as flooding and earthquakes.



TV personality Daphne Oseña-Paez said the shot was taken on the Taguig-Pasig flight path and identified the highly urbanized area as Pasig City.

Lack of open space, lack of evacuation areas

Architect Felino Palafox Jr. told GMA News Online on Monday that the photo highlights one of the crucial problems in Metro Manila: lack of open spaces.  

"Someone from the government or an organization or a private citizen should make an open space audit of Metro Manila," he proposed.

The lack of open spaces in Metro Manila not only means that there is a lack of places for recreation for the residents.

Palafox reminded that the lack of open spaces means there is also a lack of evacuation areas in case of a disaster such as "The Big One", the highly anticipated earthquake that is expected to reach at least Magnitude 7.

While the authorities have already identified golf courses and cemeteries as evacuation areas, he said that these places are not enough.

The architect added that evacuation areas should just be five minutes away from a person.

"Have they [open spaces] been all converted [into buildings]? Why did they allow it?" Palafox asked.

He stressed that if real estate developers and those in power continue to "uglify the city" with high-rise buildings and infrastructure, then Metro Manila will always be vulnerable to disasters.  

How urbanized is Metro Manila?

A quick search on Google Maps will confirm Paez' aerial shot. But data from different international institutions like Asian Development Bank prove that the viral Facebook post should not come as a surprise.

ADB described the Philippines as a "highly urbanized nation" in its latest National Urban Assessment of the country in August 2014.

In fact, 48.9 percent of the country's total population of 94 million in 2010 live in urban areas. Moreover, the Philippines has an average population density of 313 persons/sq. km.

But no doubt, the National Capital Region--at 100 percent urbanization-- is the most densely populated area in the country with 18,165.1 persons/sq. km. spread over an administrative land area of 636 sq. km., which is only 0.2% of the total land area of the country. It has a total population of 11.9 million, based on the 2010 Census of Population and Housing (CPH).

Floods and other hazards in PHL's capital

According to ADB report, the Philippines' capital is the largest urban area in the world that is at high risk from cyclones, floods, and earthquakes.

Many cities in NCR are along the coastline that is the Manila Bay. Moreover, Metro Manila also sits on a flood plain of three rivers: the Marikina, the Napindan, and the Pasig. Being near to these bodies of water, NCR is vulnerable to flooding at the slightest fall of rain.

In fact, last week's thunderstorms caused knee-high floods in some parts of Metro Manila.

But ADB pointed out that NCR's flood problem is aggravated by the lack of appropriate sewage disposal facilities, inadequate sewerage connections, and improper waste disposal that degrade the region's waterways. 

Fourth largest urban area

Furthermore, the Demographia World Urban Areas report published in January said that Manila is the fourth largest urban area in the world.

There are 33 highly urbanized cities in the Philippines, 16 of which are all NCR cities. Three of them have more than a million inhabitants:

Caloocan City - 1.49 million
Manila City - 1.65 million
Quezon City - 2.76 million

The fourth most populous city in NCR is Pasig City with 669,773 inhabitants. The city is the seventh most populous city in the entire Philippines.

Root of the problem

The mistake in Metro Manila was its urban plans weren't followed, the architect said.  

The Laws of the Indies that required every community to have its own town plaza during the Spanish times never came to fruition.

American architect Daniel Burnham's plan for Manila in 1905 following the City Beautiful Movement that formed Chicago and Washington D.C. in the United States was ignored. The World Bank-funded study "Metro Plan" in the 1970s never came to completion.

He said that new administrations tend to shove old proposals aside and pursue their own projects. Thus, the lack of continuity.

However, urban plans take decades to finish, the architect pointed out.

More than good planning and design, it is political will, visionary leadership, and good governance that can "undo" Metro Manila as an "urban planning mistake." -NB, GMA News