Justice Carpio: UN-backed tribunal ignored China’s nine-dash line

After the Philippines took the first round of the arbitration case it has filed on overlapping claims with China, international law expert and Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said that the Permanent Court of Arbitration in its initial ruling has totally ignored the nine-dash line claim.

Carpio said that this may give a glimpse on how the tribunal will decide on the Philippines' case versus China around mid-2016.

"I was just trying to give you the mindset of the tribunal. They don't really consider it [nine-dash line] as material in determining exclusive economic zone [EEZ]," Carpio said in a media forum in Quezon City on Thursday.

"There is no such thing as a nine-dash line in the UNCLOS [United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea]," he said.

But, he clarified that the tribunal is yet to rule on the Philippines' move to invalidate the nine-dash line, which is China's basis to claim almost the entire South China Sea.

UNCLOS grants each nation 200 nautical miles of exclusive economic zone. But China's nine-dash line claim covers 950 nautical miles.

Carpio added that China has agreed with the UNCLOS.

"We have an agreement. UNCLOS. And China said, 'Okay, we are entitled to 200 nautical miles but we're claiming the rest of the South China Sea because of historical claims.' They cannot do that anymore," Carpio said.

"You already agreed. The world agreed. We already have a law."

China will comply

Although China seems to be firm on its decision to stick with its claims, the Supreme Court justice expects that it will eventually bend and comply.

He cited a similar case: the Republic of Nicaragua v. the United States of America, where the US was sued for supporting a rebellion and for deploying mines in the country's harbors.

In 1986, the International Court of Justice decided in favor of Nicaragua in the aspect of the US mining the harbors and said the US should pay damages.

Carpio pointed out that the US, like China in the arbitration case in the West Philippine Sea, refused to participate in the proceedings.

It took five resolutions, which the US vetoed, until the UN General Assembly passed one urging the US to follow the ruling and pay damages.

In the end, almost all of the member states favored Nicaragua. It was only Israel that sided with US, which was then "criticized by the whole world" for not following the rule of law.

The US eventually gave Nicaragua half a billion dollars in aid in 1992.

"Eventually, the US complied," Carpio said.

He then pointed out that as early as now, the Philippines already has a number of supporters such as fellow ASEAN members and claimants Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.

"China needs the world to survive... China needs ASEAN so that they can start with its Maritime Silk Road which passes through the South China Sea," Carpio said. "Why would these countries support China if China is grabbing its maritime zones?" Carpio said.

However, Carpio stressed not to "expect instant gratification" since the Philippines still has the rest of the world to convince.

"This case is very significant," Carpio said since exports, ships. aircraft, among other activities pass through the South China Sea.

Withdrawal of case would be "catastrophic"

If the international arbitration tribunal won't be able to decide on the arbitration case the Philippines filed against China before the next president assumes office, Carpio urges the country's next leader not to withdraw the case.

"There is nothing wrong with talking to China. But what is wrong is if the case is withdrawn. This should not be withdrawn," he said in a forum in Quezon City on Thursday night.

"That would be catastrophic."

Carpio said that tribunal also encourages amicable settlement between the countries in dispute. In fact, the UNCLOS is open to this possibility.

Of the top four presidential hopefuls, Vice President Jejomar Binay was the only one who said that he is open to have a joint venture with China to explore for oil and gas in disputed areas of the South China Sea. 

Nonetheless, Carpio is certain that the tribunal will have its decision around election time next year.

"I think the case will be decided before the next president assumes office," he assured. -NB/ELR, GMA News