Reelectionists, incumbent Congress members dominate latest senatorial survey

Reelectionists and incumbent members of Congress are most likely to win in the senatorial polls this May, the latest results of the Pulse Asia senatorial survey showed Friday.

According to the survey conducted from February 15 to 20, 14 out of the 52 senatorial candidates were reported to have a statistical chance of winning, as shown in the following excerpt:

Pulse Asia said the study involved a multistage probability sample of 1,800 registered voters 18 years old and above, with biometrics, and that the nationwide survey had a ± 2% error margin.

The survey showed that the top spot was shared by Senator Vicente "Tito" Sotto III with an overall voter preference of 63.6 percent and former Senator Panfilo "Ping" Lacson with 60.2 percent. Both candidates shared the first to second places.

The third to fifth spots were occupied by former Senator Francis "Kiko" Pangilinan with 54.1 percent and Senator Ralph Recto with 53.4 percent.

Senate President Franklin Drilon was pegged at the third to sixth spots with 53.4 percent, while former Senator Juan Miguel Zubiri was ranked fifth to seventh with 48.5 percent.

Other probable winners are former Justice Secretary Leila de Lima (45.3 percent at sixth to tenth place); Senator Sergio Osmeña III (43.7 percent at seventh to tenth place); former Senator Richard "Dick" Gordon (42.6 percent at seventh to eleventh place); Valenzuela City Mayor Sherwin "Win" Gatchalian (41.2 percent at seventh to twelfth place); and former TESDA director Emmanuel Joel Villanueva (39.1 percent at ninth to fourteenth place).

They were followed by Senator Teofisto Guingona III (36.7 percent at tenth to fourteenth place); former Akbayan Rep. Risa Hontiveros (36.2 percent at eleventh to fourteenth place); and Sarangani Rep. Emmanuel "Manny" Pacquiao (34.8 percent at eleventh to fourteenth place).

"Only 2.3 percent of Filipinos are not supporting any senatorial candidate at this time," Pulse Asia said in a media release.

Between January and February, only Villanueva noted an improvement in his senatorial voter preference while eight other candidates registered a decline.

"Overall, 44 percent of Filipinos express support for 12 senatorial candidates. It is only in Metro Manila where a majority figure is recorded," Pulse Asia said.

"In the other geographic areas and socio-economic classes, the percentages of voters with a complete senatorial slate range from 37 percent to 45 percent and 41 percent to 45 percent, respectively," it added.

Pulse Asia said some of the social and political developments that "preoccupied" Filipinos in the February 2016 survey include:

• the official start of the campaign period for candidates seeking national positions
• continuation of hearings in the Supreme Court concerning the disqualification cases against Poe
• the conduct of mock elections by the Comelec and the start of the ballot printing 
• the controversial statement made by Sarangani Rep. Emmanuel Pacquiao concerning same-sex marriage
• the World Health Organization’s declaration that microcephaly, a disease linked to the Zika virus poses a global public health emergency, and
• adjournment of Congress on February 3, and its failure to pass the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL).

— RSJ/TJD, GMA News