Poe, Duterte top latest SWS mobile survey

Presidential candidates Sen. Grace Poe and Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte were statistically tied for first place in the latest Bilang Pilipino Social Weather Stations (SWS) mobile survey.

The poll showed 34 percent choosing Poe and 31 percent choosing Duterte to succeed President Benigno Aquino III.

Duterte gained five percentage points from the March 22 SWS mobile survey with Poe slipping a percentage point.

Meanwhile, Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Interior Secretary Manuel "Mar" Roxas II were both chosen by 17 percent of those polled, while one percent chose Sen. Miriam Defensor-Santiago.

In the previous mobile poll, 18 percent chose Binay, 17 percent chose Roxas, and two percent chose Santiago.

The latest mobile survey was taken last March 30 and used a random sample of 1,200 validated voters nationwide (300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao). The sample was arrived at using standard statistical procedures. The respondents underwent face-to-face interviews on March 8-11 and were invited to participate in a mobile survey. Of the number, only 733 or 61 percent responded: 201 in Metro Manila, 170 in Balance Luzon, 193 in Visayas and 169 in Mindanao.

It had sampling error margins of ±4% for national percentages, ±7% in Metro Manila and Visayas, and ±8% in Balance Luzon and Mindanao.

The previous survey also had 1,200 original panel respondents and only 803 or 67 percent responded: 212 in Metro Manila, 190 in Balance Luzon, 221 in Visayas and 183 in Mindanao.

It had sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±7% in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao

Geographically

In the latest survey, Poe was the top choice for president (39 percent) by respondents in Balance Luzon, followed by Binay (22 percent), Duterte (21 percent), Roxas (16 percent) and Santiago (one percent).

She was also the top choice of respondents from Visayas with 37 percent, followed by Binay with 22 percent, Duterte with 21 percent, Roxas with 16 percent and Santiago with 2 percent.

Duterte, meanwhile, topped Metro Manila with 32 percent, followed by Poe with 26 percent, Binay who got 19 percent, Roxas with 16 percent and Santiago with 4 percent.

Duterte was also the top choice by respondents in Mindanao, his supposed stronghold, with 56 percent, followed by Poe with 24 percent, Roxas with 11 percent, Binay with nine percent, and Santiago with zero percent. In Mindanao, one percent were undecided.

Would respondents change their mind?

The March poll also asked respondents if they would change their choices for president in the May 9 elections.

Fifty-nine percent of those who responded said they would definitely not change their minds, 21 percent said they had likely decided, 16 percent said they could still easily change their minds, and five percent said they did not know.

Additionally, the poll asked respondents which candidate they did "not like to win the most."

Some 27 percent of respondents said they did not like Mar Roxas to win, 24 percent chose VP Binay, 17 percent chose Duterte, 10 percent said Miriam Santiago, five percent chose Poe, and 17 percent said they did not know.

Demographic

Duterte was the top choice of respondents who belong to the socioeconomic class ABC with 43 percent or 12 percentage points ahead of Poe who got 31 percent.

Poe was the top choice in class D with 34 percent, only four percent ahead of Duterte, who got 30 percent.

The senator was also the top choice among respondents in class E with 36 percent, ahead of Duterte by 8 points.

Among the youth, Poe and Duterte were also the top choices for president.

Poe and Duterte got 38 percent each among respondents in the 18 to 24 age bracket.

Respondents who belong to the 25 to 34 age bracket chose Poe with 37 percent and Duterte with 34 percent.

Both candidates were also the top choice among respondents aged 35 to 44—Poe (36 percent) and Duterte 27 percent—and respondents aged 45 to 54—Poe (31 percent) and Duterte (26 percent).

Older respondents aged 55 and above chose Duterte with 31 percent and Poe with 27 percent.

Declining response rates

In his column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, SWS president Mahar Mangahas said the first mobile survey, a  first in the country, was conducted last March 14.

Mangahas said there are now a total of 12 mobile surveys.

In his column, he noted the declining response rates of the survey: March 14, 71 percent; March 15, 63 percent; March 16, 64 percent; March 17, 72 percent; March 18, 74 percent; March 21, 66 percent; March 22, 67 percent; March 23, 65 percent; March 24 (Holy Thursday), 61 percent; March 25 (Good Friday), 57 percent; March 28, 62 percent; and March 29, 63 percent.

The March 30 survey had a 61-percent response rate.

Despite this, he said the responses "have been very stable."

"This means that the attrition of the sample is not accompanied by demographic bias. The way to handle attrition is, of course, to augment the panel periodically; we have requested the sponsors for assistance on this," he said.

He added: "The rapid feedback from the panel mobile survey is enabling us to quantify just how stable or unstable are the attitudes of voters. The race is quite dynamic. It’s an exciting time for election research."

Reactions

Valenzuela City Mayor Rex Gatchalian, Poe’s spokesperson, on Monday said their camp will continue using the results of pre-election surveys to plot the next moves in their campaign.

“The data provided by these surveys will be utilized for our next strategies. Our resolve is to continue amplifying our message of what Gobyernong May Puso can do for our people,” he said in a text message sent to GMA News Online.

Meanwhile, the ruling Liberal Party (LP) on Monday questioned the reliability of the said mobile survey.

LP spokesperson Akbayan Rep. Ibarra Gutierrez, in a statement, mocked the survey saying it "is just a bit more scientific than the comments section in YouTube."

"This is how we understand the SWS mobile survey—it's not random, that certain cellphone owners volunteered to be respondents...You can see its unreliability from its vastly inconsistent result with traditional surveys," Gutierrez said.

For the LP, the presidential race "remains tight."

"The race remains tight, and we will continue our efforts to spread our message of continued progress for all Filipino families. Surveys like this will not thwart us from our goal," Gutierrez said. —With reports from Xianne Arcangel and Kathrina Charmaine Alvarez/DVM/ALG/KG, GMA News