Chiz leads in SWS mobile survey; Marcos, Robredo tied at second

Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero maintained his lead over the other vice presidential aspirants in the Bilang Pilipino Social Weather Stations (SWS) mobile survey conducted last March 31.

Escudero received 31 percent from among the 757 who actually answered the mobile poll, from among the 1,200 respondents who were sent the text.

The reply rate was at 63 percent.

Escudero was the choice of 193 participants in Metro Manila, 179 in Balance Luzon, 209 in the Visayas, and 176 in Mindanao.

Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Camarines Sur Representative Maria Leonor “Leni” Robredo are statistically tied at 26 and 25 points respectively.

Marcos' score was down by two points from the previous poll. Robredo's was up by five.

Senators Alan Peter Cayetano, Antonio Trillanes IV, and Gregorio Honasan meanwhile scored 13 percent, three percent, and one percent respectively.

Only one percent said they were undecided.

The poll had error margins of ±4 percent for national percentages, and ±7 percent for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao.

Response rates

SWS president Mahar Mangahas, in his column in the Philippine Daily Inquirer, noted the declining response rates in the mobile survey during its course.

"This means that the attrition of the sample is not accompanied by demographic bias. The way to handle attrition is, of course, to augment the panel periodically; we have requested the sponsors for assistance on this," Mangahas said.

In the March 31 survey, only 757 respondents actively participated from the original panel of 1,200 at a response rate of 63 percent but responses "have been very stable."

"The rapid feedback from the panel mobile survey is enabling us to quantify just how stable or unstable are the attitudes of voters. The race is quite dynamic. It’s an exciting time for election research," Mangahas added.

SWS' mobile surveys use a random sample of 1,200 validated voters nationwide (300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao).

The sample was arrived at using standard statistical procedures. The respondents underwent face-to-face interviews on March 8-11 and were invited to participate in a mobile survey.

The respondents were given mobile phones, with which they would answer survey questions. They may keep the phones after the series of surveys end in late May.

Voter commitment

The SWS also asked the respondents if they were likely to change their minds before the May 9 elections.

Almost 3-in-5 or 59 percent of the respondents said they would definitely not change their minds, 22 percent said they have probably decided on who to vote for, 14 percent can still easily change their preference, and only five percent said they were unsure.

Geographic groups

Across the country, Escudero was the top choice in Balance Luzon with 38 percent, followed by Marcos with 31 percent, Robredo with 20 percent, Cayetano with eight percent, and Honasan with two percent.

Two percent were undecided while none of the respondents chose Trillanes.

Marcos, meanwhile, had strong support in Metro Manila with 32 percent, followed by Escudero with 30 percent, Robredo with 20 percent, Cayetano with 15 percent, and Trillanes and Honasan both with two percent.

Only one percent were undecided.

In the Visayas, Robredo scored 38 percent in the region where her running mate Mar Roxas is perceived to be strong among voters.

Escudero came in second but was 10 points behind Robredo with 28 percent, followed by Marcos with 16 percent, Cayetano with 14 percent, Trillanes with four percent, and Honasan with one percent.

Robredo was also strong in Mindanao with 24 percent, followed by Marcos with 23 percent, Escudero with 21 percent, Cayetano with 20 percent, and Trillanes with 11 percent.

None of the respondents in Mindanao chose Honasan while one percent remained undecided.

Economic classes

Escudero got 32 percent of support from class D voters—five points ahead of Marcos—26 percent from class E, and 23 percent from classes ABC. He is also the top choice among voters aged 18-24 and 45-54 with 38 percent.

Robredo led all candidates in classes ABC and E with 31 percent, eight points ahead of Escudero in ABC and five points ahead of Marcos in E. The congresswoman also got 23 percent in class D and was the preferred candidate of respondents aged 55 and above.

Marcos, meanwhile, got 28 percent in classes ABC, 27 percent in class D, and 21 percent in class E. The senator was particularly strong among voters aged 35-44.

Cayetano scored 13 percent in classes ABC and D, and nine percent in class E.

Trillanes got three percent in both classes ABC and D and eight percent in class E.

Honasan received only two percent in classes ABC, one percent in class D, and three percent in class E. —Tristan Joseph Roxas/NB/KG/JST, GMA News