Duterte leads in latest Pulse Asia poll

Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte widened his lead the April 12-17, 2016 Pulse Asia survey on presidential preference.

Duterte garnered the nods of 34 percent of the respondents in the poll, the results of which were released Sunday. This was two percentage points higher than his 32 percent rating in the April 5-10, 2016 survey.

He was followed by Sen. Grace Poe at 22 percent. Poe's rating was down by 3 percentage points from her 25 percent in the previous survey.

Vice President Jejomar Binay and former Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas were statistically tied in the next spot, with 19 percent and 18 percent respectively. Binay's rating was one percent down from the 20 percent he got in the last survey, while Roxas maintained his 18 percent rating.

Two percent of the respondents chose Sen. Miriam Defensor Santiago, up by one percent from the previous survey.

Rep. Roy Señeres, who passed away in February, was still on the list of choices, and 0.1 percent picked him as their bet for president.

The undecided were 3 percent, while those who don't know or refused were at 1 percent. Another one percent just picked none.

The latest survey, commissioned by ABS-CBN Corporation, had as respondents 4,000 registered voters aged 18 and above with biometrics.

The poll was conducted using face-to-face interviews.

Error margin for the nationwide survey is at ± 1.5 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.

For subnational estimates, error margins are the following at the 95 percent confidence level: ± 4.6 percent for Metro Manila, ± 2.3 percent for the rest of Luzon, ± 3.4 percent for Visayas and ± 3.3 percent for Mindanao.

On April 17, the last day of the survey, Duterte made headlines after a video of him making a rape joke at a rally went viral.

The survey was conducted a few days after 18 government soldiers were killed in a 10-hour gunfight with Abu Sayyaf members in Tipo-Tipo, Basilan on April 9. Thirteen Abu Sayyaf members also died.

A week before the survey, the violent dispersal of the protest action of farmers in Kidapawan City happened on April 1.

Geographic areas

Duterte had the strongest lead in Mindanao at 61 percent, followed by Metro Manila with 43 percent.

In Balance Luzon, Poe topped with 30 percent, followed by Binay with 26 percent.

In the Visayas, administration bet Roxas was chosen by 34 percent of respondents, with Duterte closely following him at 28 percent.

Socio-economic classes

Among classes ABC, Duterte was the top choice at 47 percent, while the next three—Binay (15 percent), Roxas (15 percent), and Poe (14 percent)—were statistically tied.

Duterte also led in classes D and E, with 33 percent and 34 percent respectively.

Reaction

Duterte's camp said they are humbled by the continuing rise of their candidate in the surveys despite the issues surrounding him.

"This only proves that Filipinos from all classes are clamoring for genuine change. This 12-point lead inspires us to work even harder to frustrate last ditch efforts by the 'trapos' to stop the advance and victory of our people," Peter Laviña, Duterte's spokesman, said in a text message sent to reporters on Sunday.

Second choice

Asked who they will pick if their chosen candidate does not pursue his/her candidacy for president, respondents named their second choice, with Poe leading at 32 percent.

Binay was next at 17 percent, while Roxas and Duterte followed with 13 percent each.

Santiago, meanwhile, was picked by 6 percent.

Nineteen percent of respondents, on the other hand, had no second choice for president.

1st choice to 2nd choice

Tracking the presidential vote diffusion from 1st choice to 2nd choice, Pulse Asia revealed that Poe stands most to gain if Duterte does not pursue his candidacy.

Poe got 38 percent, while Binay came next at 21 percent.

Roxas was third at 11 percent. —with Aya Tantiangco and Trisha Macas/KG, GMA News